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Recently, there were widespread rumors in the market that the United States might take military action against Iran, leading to heightened tensions. Traders on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket were also anxious, at one point believing the probability of the U.S. taking action against Iran before July was as high as 66.9%. #以色列伊朗冲突
However, the situation quickly changed. According to Axios, the Trump team seems to be seeking to "de-escalate relations"—reports suggest that a U.S. envoy is preparing to meet with the Iranian foreign minister to discuss diplomatic options including the nuclear agreement and a ceasefire. As a result, expectations regarding U.S.-Iran conflict on Polymarket rapidly cooled, with the probability of military action dropping to 46%.
However, not everyone supports negotiations. One user commented on Polymarket, saying, "Trump should go to war; his military needs some postmodern warfare experience!" calling for direct engagement.
In this context, there is also a sense of tension: last Friday, Israel just attacked multiple military and nuclear targets in Iran, which Iran subsequently retaliated against. The global market experienced severe fluctuations—Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $102,750, the yen rose, and U.S. stocks were also impacted.
However, Bitcoin has now slowly stabilized back to around $106,700, with the market seemingly waiting to see the next steps. Although Trump has not yet responded to Axios's negotiation news, he reiterated in a social media post: "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons; the people of Tehran must withdraw." $BTC #比特币
