#FOMCMeeting

Decision & Rate Outlook

The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 4.25 %–4.50 %, continuing its hold for the third consecutive meeting and signaling a pause in rate cuts for now .

According to CME FedWatch, markets see virtually 100 % odds of a hold in June and ~60–85 % probability of a cut arriving in September .

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📊 Economic Drivers

Inflation has softened (CPI, PPI, PCE trending downward), but tariff- and oil-related pressures persist—keeping the Fed cautious .

Labor market remains strong, with unemployment stable near 4.2 % and solid job creation, giving the Fed room to wait .

Fed officials emphasize data-driven decisions, not political influence, despite President Trump’s calls for aggressive rate cuts .

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🗣️ Fed Commentary & Dot Plot Update

At the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is expected to reinforce the strong “wait-and-see” stance .

New SEP (“dot plot”) may show fewer rate cuts in 2025, reducing expectations for multiple cuts—most forecasters now expect just one by year-end .

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🔮 Market & Expert Sentiment

Experts caution that waiting too long might risk a sharper economic downturn later—a few are advocating for a cut soon to support labor markets .

Political dynamics: Trump’s efforts to pressure the Fed seem to have hardened the Fed’s resolve to maintain independence and hold off on premature cuts .

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🔑 Key Takeaways

Topic Insight

Rate Decision Pit remains steady at 4.25–4.50 %

Inflation/Labor Cooling inflation; still-solid jobs

Fed Tone Cautious, independent, data‑driven

Future Cuts Markets see first cut likely in September or October 2025.