The dot plot may show fewer rate cuts in 2025 – the market has already pushed expectations to September and beyond.
Increased caution is explained by the resilience of the labor market and inflation, which is not "very hot" yet, but does not allow for complacency.
💡 Impact on markets and trader strategy:
1. Stock markets (SPY +0.94%) slightly gained today, but no major breakthroughs are expected without new signals.
2. It is worth focusing on September as a potential starting point for cuts, but without aggressive bids at the moment.
3. The best approach is to focus on long-term hedging (government bonds, gold, short inflation), as well as monitoring daily data on employment, retail sales, and energy in the coming weeks.