#FOMCMeeting

📌 What to Expect & Key Themes

1. No rate cut expected this week

– The Fed is widely anticipated to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, maintaining its "wait-and-see" stance .

2. Inflation & Tariff Watch

– Recent CPI and PPI data showed cooler inflation, despite recent tariffs—and the Fed will likely wait for more clarity before shifting stance .

3. Dot plot updates

– The Fed will release updated projections. Markets expect two rate cuts later this year (perhaps in September and December), but officials may trim the forecast—possibly only one or even zero cuts in 2025 .

4. Labor market and global concerns

– A robust job market (unemployment at ~4.2%) gives the Fed flexibility, but tensions from tariffs, global geopolitical issues, and uncertain fiscal policy will weigh heavily .

5. Independence intact despite political pressure

– President Trump has urged rate cuts (even up to a full point), but analysts expect Powell to steer clear of undue influence and emphasize data-driven policy .

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🗓️ Timeline

Meeting Dates: June 17–18, 2025 (midday announcements Eastern Time) .

Dot plot & SEP: Accompanying forecasts.

Press conference: Expect Powell’s commentary around 2 p.m. EDT on June 18.

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🔍 What to Watch

Whether the dot plot median shifts toward fewer cuts this year.

Any Fed signals of concern over inflation stickiness or trade-related risks.

Mention of potential rate cuts—when and under what conditions (e.g. September vs. later).