1. Price Volatility and Core Driving Factors
1. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Shocks
On June 13, influenced by Israel's airstrike on Iran, the price of Bitcoin plunged to $102,614 per coin, with a single-day decline of over 4%. More than 240,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with a liquidation amount reaching $1.16 billion. This event highlights the cryptocurrency market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate stance and the uncertainty surrounding the Bitcoin investment bill in South Dakota have further intensified market selling pressure.
2. Technical Recovery and Rebound
After a sharp decline, Bitcoin experienced a technical rebound on June 17, with the price rising to $106,678, rebounding about 4% from the low on the 13th. The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has broken above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($105,514) and is approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($106,706). If the closing price stabilizes in this area, it may open a new upward trend. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have widened, the price has broken through the middle band and is approaching the upper band, and the RSI has rebounded from the oversold area to around 50, indicating enhanced short-term bullish strength.
3. Institutional Behavior and Market Structure
Despite miners continuing to sell (over 30,000 BTC sold since June), strong institutional demand has offset the selling pressure. Giants like BlackRock and Grayscale are continuously increasing their holdings through spot ETFs. As of June 11, the total net assets of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $132.833 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $45.058 billion. Additionally, net outflows of BTC from exchanges have increased (over 6,000 BTC left CEX platforms in the past week), indicating that some funds are shifting from short-term trading to long-term holding.
2. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment
1. On-chain Activity and Long-term Holding Trends
The daily transaction volume of Bitcoin on-chain dropped to 256,000 on June 1, hitting a 19-month low, but the exchange supply fell to a near seven-year low (11% of circulation), indicating that long-term holders (LTH) dominate the market. Glassnode data shows that non-liquid supply has reached a historical peak, indicating that the current rally is not driven by retail frenzy, but is supported by institutional fund inflows and supply tightening among structural factors.
2. Sentiment Indicators and Market Psychology
Despite the price rebound, market sentiment remains cautious. On June 3, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 45 (neutral and fear threshold), reflecting investors' concerns about macro risks. However, social media sentiment turned positive on June 11, with the positive/negative sentiment ratio breaking 1.0, showing that the market still has expectations for the long-term outlook. It is worth noting that the effectiveness of the Fear and Greed Index faces challenges, as derivatives trading volume exceeds 70%, and AI-generated content interferes with sentiment analysis, making traditional indicators less able to fully reflect the true state of the market.
3. Key Technical Levels and Future Outlook
1. Short-term Resistance and Support
Bitcoin currently needs to break through $108,181 to confirm a bullish macro structure. If it stabilizes at this level, it may attempt to reach the psychological threshold of $120,000. The key support level below is $104,000-$105,000; if this area is breached, it may drop to $70,000.
2. Volatility and Risk Warning
On-chain indicators show that Bitcoin has entered a high-volatility phase of the bull market cycle. Glassnode points out that the current unrealized profit indicator is above the 2 standard deviation range, a condition that has only occurred on 16% of trading days historically, usually accompanied by increased volatility. Furthermore, the dense macroeconomic events in June (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and CPI data) could trigger violent market fluctuations, requiring caution against shocks from policy exceeding expectations.