#FOMCMeeting

• Inflation: Remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target (core PCE at ~2.6%), with risks of persistence due to tariffs. The SEP may revise 2025 inflation projections upward to ~3%.

• Labor Market: Unemployment is stable at ~4.2%, but softening indicators (e.g., initial jobless claims at 248,000) are under scrutiny. The Fed is poised to cut rates if labor market stress emerges.

• Tariffs: President Trump’s trade policies, including high tariffs (e.g., 145% on China), pose risks of stagflation (higher inflation, slower growth). The Fed is adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, awaiting clearer data.

• Schedule: The policy statement will be released on June 18, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET (6:00 PM UTC), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 PM ET (6:30 PM UTC).

• Sentiment on X: Posts reflect mixed views. Some highlight political pressure from Trump for rate cuts, while others note the Fed’s data-driven stance. There’s speculation about Powell’s tone impacting markets (hawkish vs. dovish).