Many people say they lose money because their understanding is insufficient. There is indeed a difference in understanding among people, but is there any threshold to gain understanding? I think not. If I lack understanding, my method is to directly spend money to consult with those who have succeeded. I will ask 10 people, and if their answers are consistent, then that answer must be the truth of the industry, and I will follow that truth in my operations.
Let's start with the conclusion: making money in the crypto world relies on luck, so don't talk about high-level understanding. If you realize that making money in crypto depends on luck, I can't say you'll make a lot of money, but I can say you won't lose big money anymore. Luck accounts for 99%, while understanding + capital only accounts for 1%. I have personally seen people without understanding and limited capital make a lot of money purely by luck.
The luck mentioned here is essentially a trend. For example, no matter how high your understanding is or how much capital you have, in a bear market environment, you won't make money playing anything. Because the market is stagnant; without volatility, there are no profits. Relying on hoarding coins, no matter how much money you have or how high your understanding is, in a bear market, it’s just more drops and fewer rises; no matter how much you hoard, you won't make money. Relying on trading, options, grid trading, or quant trading will also yield minimal profits.
Making big money in crypto is all about luck. If you hoard coins during a bear market for three years, and in the fourth year, the bull market comes and the price suddenly rises 5-10 times, isn't that luck? Because people cannot control the market trend, a bull market is a form of luck. When luck arrives, if you're in the right place, you'll be taken along for the ride.
If a person believes they are making money through skill, they will not earn much in the crypto world. Even those high-leverage contract players, making 1 million dollars in a month, are still relying on luck; their strategy just happens to align with the market rhythm. You must know that countless strategies were running at the same time as his; others lost more than they earned, but his strategy just happened to come out on top. Once the market rhythm changes, he will also lose money.
If you don't believe it, you can do an experiment: go to Binance to simulate copy trading, starting with 10,000 USDT, choose the person with the highest returns over 30 days, and observe the copy trading returns over 1-3 months. I followed 7 people, and 5 of them lost money. What is this if not luck?
The most powerful understanding a person can have is knowing when luck arrives. Enter when luck comes, and exit when luck fades. Capital is just a means of production, not a determining factor. Because everyone has capital, but not everyone can make money. With the awareness to recognize luck, combined with luck and capital, when all three circles align, you should be able to make money.
I say all this to tell you: don’t rely on skills to make money; the crypto world is all about luck. Wherever capital flows, and whichever sector is growing, indicates where luck is; you need to go there and wait for luck. For example, what’s the point of guarding inscriptions now? Luck has already come and gone. Going there now to wait for its return is just foolish gambling, right? I see people still asking about buying EOS; luck has left it for 8 years, and you still want to buy it. No matter how much capital you have or how skilled you are in trading, can you make money? The real skill is to participate when you see luck returning.
Luck is something that is awaited. For example, when altcoins are about to soar, it’s when Bitcoin's market cap share continues to decline and Bitcoin stops soaring. At this moment, you recognize that luck for altcoins has arrived and you participate, ultimately making a profit. If you rush in without any signs of a breakout, and buy on dips, leading to a surge in profits, that belongs to macro luck in the industry. It's your firm belief that memes have a future and that there will be a bull market ahead, rather than luck that you’ve identified. But how many people have such resolve? Moreover, the premise of doing this is that you can only allocate a portion of your capital for it, while the majority should remain in BTC. From a macro perspective, you know BTC will not go to zero; if it drops, you just wait. But giving up allocation and diving into memes will ultimately result in heavy losses.
I have a boss who bought 40 million yuan worth of BTC; he sold it all for less than 90,000, making little profit. Now someone tells him that he can make money with quantitative strategies, and he is very regretful that he missed out on BTC's later rise. That person claims quant trading can achieve annualized returns of 50-100%, but doesn't mention the prerequisites. He asked me if he could do it; I told him quant is just a strategy algorithm that uses programs to replace human operations and avoid emotional influences. Without market luck, you can't make money either. Handing money to someone else, and then sharing 25% of the profits while they don’t bear losses, is just superstitious about technology while neglecting the fact that market luck is more important. This doesn't even account for the risk of the principal.
Those who make money in crypto often boast about their returns and account assets, saying their skills are amazing and that they can lead trades or analyze effectively; this is not the truth, but merely the result of luck. If you truly believe it, you will surely suffer losses. They never say relying on luck is not real skill; if they say it's just luck, then that is the truth.
I write this to fundamentally change your worldview of the crypto world: do not easily think that someone else's trading skills are superior. The fundamental reason for making money in crypto is luck; only skilled people can recognize where luck lies and can also optimize strategies based on luck to go further. They have experience and can always seize opportunities, accumulating wealth through waves of market trends.
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