#FOMCMeeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on June 17-18, 2025.

** It's widely expected that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at this meeting.**

* Previous Meeting (May 2025): At its May 6-7, 2025 meeting, the Fed kept interest rates steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. They adopted a "wait and see" approach regarding future rate cuts.

* CME FedWatch Tool: According to CME FedWatch data from June 11, 2025, futures traders are pricing in a 60% probability of the next rate cut occurring in September 2025. Some analysts, like Rosner, anticipate one cut in 2025, while others, such as Michael Feroli from JP Morgan, don't foresee a cut until December.

* Inflation and Labor Market: Generally, the Fed has noted that labor market conditions remain strong, and inflation is only slightly above the 2% target.

** Impact on Crypto and Risk Assets **

* Rising Interest Rates: Increases in interest rates generally dampen the market for cryptocurrencies and risk assets. This is due to investors' decreased willingness to take on risk (safe investments like bonds become more attractive), increased opportunity costs, and heightened margin calls, which can lead to price declines and bankruptcies.

* Falling Interest Rates: Rate cuts by the Fed typically support the growth of risk assets. As long as there isn't a severe recession concurrently, the appetite for risk remains. This creates a favorable environment for equities and other risk assets. However, a lack of clear signals and fluctuating expectations can lead to volatility.

* Current Environment: The persistent recession risks combined with the upcoming US elections suggest that heightened volatility could persist in the coming months.

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Overall, while the Fed's direction toward potential monetary easing is clear, the pace and timing of future moves remain uncertain and will depend on evolving economic data. Investors should stay vigilant and adapt their strategies to this dynamic environment.