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Fed Holds Steady as Markets Brace for the Dot Plot; Crypto Eyes the Fed’s Next Move

Most analysts expect the June 17–18 FOMC meeting to conclude with the Federal Reserve holding its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50%, reflecting ongoing concerns about persistent inflation and recent geopolitical pressures on energy prices. With money markets pricing in almost no chance of a June cut and pushing expectations for the first 25‑basis‑point reduction to September at the earliest, attention will instead focus on the updated Summary of Economic Projections. The so‑called “dot plot” is likely to signal only a single rate cut this year, with upward revisions to inflation forecasts—especially given recent data showing inflation running above target and supply‑side pressures from trade tensions. These projections will guide investors’ broad risk appetites, influence Treasury yields, and set the tone for equities and fixed‑income markets over the remainder of 2025.

In the crypto ecosystem, the Fed’s messaging often acts as a catalyst for sharp moves. A more hawkish tone or any indication of delayed easing tends to sap risk‑on flows, leading Bitcoin and altcoins to consolidate or pull back. Conversely, signs of even one imminent cut could spark a fast rally: analysts at CMC Markets suggest that an unexpectedly early rate cut might propel Bitcoin back toward $112,000, with broader crypto indices rallying in tandem. Historical precedent underscores this sensitivity—U.S.-listed crypto stocks jumped significantly after a surprise half‑point rate cut in September 2024. Thus, while the Fed’s immediate decision may simply reaffirm the status quo, its economic projections and forward guidance will likely dictate crypto market volatility for weeks to come.