#FOMCMeeting The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17-18, 2025, is one of the most important economic events, as investors and analysts await the U.S. central bank's decisions regarding monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates and economic forecasts.

🌟Key Points Expected at the June 2025 Meeting:

♦️Interest Rate Hold: The vast majority of analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady at their current range (4.25%-4.50%). The CME Group's FedWatch indicator suggests a nearly 99.9% probability of holding the interest rate at this meeting. This is due to persistent inflation and heightened uncertainty regarding economic forecasts, especially with the effects of recent tariffs.

♦️Economic Projections Update (Dot Plot): The meeting will release the "Summary of Economic Projections" (SEP), known as the "Dot Plot." This chart shows the individual forecasts of committee members regarding the path of interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates in the coming years.

♦️Interest Rate Cut Forecasts: In the March 2025 forecasts, the dot plot indicated two interest rate cuts during 2025. However, due to "sticky" inflation and the effects of tariffs, some analysts expect the new dot plot to indicate only one interest rate cut in 2025, or possibly no cuts at all this year.

♦️Growth and Inflation Forecasts: The update to the forecasts is likely to show a downgrade in GDP growth projections for the last quarter of 2025 (to around 1.2% annually compared to 1.7% in the March forecast), and an increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation projections (to 3.0% annually compared to 2.8% in the March forecast). The unemployment rate trajectory may also be adjusted slightly upward.

🌟Jerome Powell's Press Conference: A press conference will follow the meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His statements will be of great interest as he will clarify the central bank's stance and provide further details on his assessment of the U.S. economy and the future path of monetary policy. Powell is expected to emphasize a "wait-and-see" approach and that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

🌟This caution and wait-and-see approach comes for several reasons:🤔🤔

✅Economic Uncertainty: The uncertainty regarding economic forecasts has increased, especially with the repercussions of recent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth.

✅Sticky Inflation: Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to rein in inflation, it still shows "stickiness" in declining to the target level (2%).

✅Labor Market: Despite some indications of easing tensions, the labor market remains relatively strong, which could support inflation and reduce the central bank's drive to quickly cut interest rates.

✅Political Pressures: The Federal Reserve is facing pressures from the White House to urgently cut interest rates, but it insists on making decisions based on economic data.

Overall, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at the June meeting, focusing on the message it will provide regarding its economic forecasts and the path of monetary policy in the coming months, particularly regarding the number of potential interest rate cuts in 2025. Markets will be sensitive to any change in the committee's tone or expectations.😇😇