My Views on the Altcoin Market

1. The kind of altcoin season seen in previous bull markets is unlikely to occur again.

The reason for the widespread surge in altcoin seasons in the past was that the crypto market was a seller's market, with crypto assets being relatively scarce, allowing even worthless coins to soar; however, the market structure has fundamentally changed in this bull market. The simplification of asset issuance has led to an oversupply of assets, and the crypto market has transformed into a buyer's market. Furthermore, liquidity is relatively tight in this bull market, resulting in a situation where there are more wolves than meat, and funds are simply insufficient, making it naturally difficult for altcoins to rise.

2. Altcoins will at most see a rebound trend in the future.

Under the market conditions of asset surplus and funding shortage, the altcoin market can only produce short-lived, emotion-driven trends and cannot maintain a sustained rise;

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs and Trump's election were the times when market sentiment was most optimistic, and these were also the two phases with the strongest upward momentum for altcoins. It is difficult for such optimistic market sentiment to be generated again in this bull market, so even if altcoins rise subsequently, the extent will be quite limited, generally manifesting as a rebound trend.

3. Local opportunities are likely to arise.

Although I am not optimistic about the overall performance of altcoins, there may be local opportunities. For example, expectations for the approval of altcoin ETFs, U.S. listed companies buying altcoins, and the new SEC chair easing regulations on DeFi, etc.