The current BTC price is operating near 106580, and the overall structure is still in a critical adjustment phase of the long-short battle. The following key factors need special attention for the upcoming short-term trend:
1. Technical Analysis
Daily Level: BTC encountered strong resistance in the previous 108000-110000 range, with multiple tests failing to break through effectively; after a pullback, it touched a low of about 104000, forming clear support;
Currently in a low-level range + shrinking volume consolidation phase, chips are being re-accumulated; MA20 has begun to flatten, with short-term long-short stalemate, but has not broken.
4-Hour Chart Structure:
A clear converging triangle pattern is visible, with prices oscillating between 104000-107500;
The key resistance level above is 107800~108200, a breakout is needed to break the oscillation pattern;
Support below still looks at 104200~103500, and if this area is broken, it will test previous lows and may even trigger a short position surge.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
The overall market sentiment is cautious, with net capital inflow decreasing;
On-chain data shows that large holders have not significantly increased their positions, and retail participation is declining;
The long-short ratio in the futures market is close to 1:1, indicating that there is currently no directional betting advantage, likely in a "waiting for signal zone."
3. Short-Term Strategy Reference (For Learning Only)
Bullish Approach (Aggressive): Consider attempting to accumulate lightly in batches in the 104500~105200 area, with a stop-loss set below 103800; if it breaks 107800, consider following the trend to go long, looking towards 109500~111000;
Bearish Approach (Need to be Cautious): If the price drops again to 104000 and breaks down with volume, consider going short in line with the trend, targeting 100800/98500; if 107800 fails to break again, shorting for a pullback may also be considered, but risk control must be strict.
In this structure, the most important thing is to avoid blindly chasing orders or heavily betting on direction; light testing + clear risk control + waiting for confirmation is the safest approach.
If you want to know the specific entry points and methods for setting stop-losses,
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The current market may seem uninteresting, but it is actually brewing for the next wave of breakout.
