A state of caution and anticipation prevails in the markets ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17 and 18, 2025, amid an economically charged environment with ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflationary pressures. The committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, continuing its wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of recent actions, particularly the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have contributed to rising costs of imported goods and increased price pressures.

Inflation remains below the target but is slowing down insufficiently, as the labor market shows signs of weakening through rising unemployment claims and a slowdown in hiring pace. These contradictions have led the Fed to exercise caution before making a decision to cut rates, despite increasing market expectations that the first cut may occur in September or December, depending on forthcoming economic data.

Markets are also closely monitoring the anticipated updates to the interest rate forecast chart (dot plot), which may reveal a reduction in the number of expected cuts for this year. Meanwhile, the statements expected from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference are the focal point of interest, as they are anticipated to outline the monetary policy for the next phase, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East ...