*📌 Heads‑up: The #FOMCMeeting (June 17–18) kicks off amid a balancing act.*

• Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50% – nearly 100% odds, per CME Group’s FedWatch

• Inflation has cooled (May CPI softer than expected), but tariffs and Middle East tensions (Israel‑Iran conflict pushing oil up ~13%) keep uncertainties alive

• Economic growth is sluggish (recent GDP contraction), wage gains are flat, jobless claims rising – some analysts argue the Fed may be delaying action

• The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (“dot‑plot”) due Wednesday could signal fewer or delayed rate cuts in 2025  likely push back to September–October, down from March’s dot‑plot

*Bottom line:* The Fed is walking a tightrope—balancing cooling inflation with trade & geopolitical risks—opting for patience this week while signaling what’s ahead.