A state of caution and anticipation prevails in the markets ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17 and 18, 2025, amid an economic environment charged with geopolitical tensions and ongoing inflationary pressures. The committee is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%–4.50% unchanged, continuing its wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of recent actions, especially the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have contributed to rising costs of imported goods and increased price pressures.

Inflation remains below target, but it is slowing down insufficiently, at a time when the labor market shows signs of retreat through rising unemployment claims and a slowdown in hiring pace. These contradictions have prompted the Fed to tread carefully before deciding to cut rates, despite increasing market expectations that the first cut may occur in September or December, depending on upcoming economic data.

Markets are also closely monitoring the expected updates to the interest rate forecast chart (dot plot), which may reveal a decrease in the number of anticipated cuts for this year. Meanwhile, the statements expected from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference are a focal point of interest, as they are expected to outline the monetary policy for the next phase, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East ...