🇺🇸 Fed at a crossroad — hike, cut… or pause again?
Tomorrow, June 18, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest‑rate decision. The current consensus is for a pause at 4.25–4.50%, with markets largely pricing in a hold and the dot‑plot signaling cuts only in September at the earliest . Yet President Trump has ramped up pressure—calling Powell a “numbskull” and threatening to "force something" if inflation eases but rates stay sticky .
Our positioning: we favor a neutral “hold” trade today—defensive allocation over risk—while standing ready to shift if Powell signals a firmer inflation outlook. Stay nimble!