A state of caution and anticipation prevails in the markets ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 17-18, 2025, amid an economic environment charged with geopolitical tensions and ongoing inflationary pressures. The committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.50%, continuing its wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of recent measures, particularly the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have contributed to rising costs of imported goods and increased price pressures.

Inflation remains below the target but is slowing down insufficiently, while the labor market shows signs of decline through rising unemployment claims and a slowdown in hiring. These contradictions have led the Fed to exercise caution before deciding to cut rates, despite increasing market expectations that the first cut could occur in September or December, depending on upcoming economic data.