#FOMCMeeting Rate hold expected: Policymakers are widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, pausing further cuts until later in the year .
Inflation & labor factors: Recent data show easing inflation (CPI/PPI weaker than expected), yet persistent labor market strength keeps pressure on the Fed .
External pressures:
New tariffs and geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) risk reigniting inflation .
Political calls for cuts: President Trump has urged a 100-basis‑point cut, but experts predict Chair Powell will resist and remain cautious .
Market outlook:
Futures suggest markets expect a cut around September 2025, not in June .
Fed’s “dot plot” projections show room for 1–2 cuts by end of year, but with June on hold .
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📅 What to watch this week
Event Time (ET)
FOMC policy statement Wed, Jun 18 — 2 pm ET
Powell press conference Wed, Jun 18 — ~2:30 pm ET
Keep an eye on forward guidance, the dot plot, and Chair Powell’s commentary. Markets will be particularly sensitive to signals on economic risks, tariff inflation, and the timing of future cuts .
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🧭 Bottom line
June meeting: Hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50%
Focus: Guidance on future cuts, economic outlook, and inflation risks
Cut timing: Likely Q3–Q4 2025, pending economic conditions
If you're tracking markets, mortgage rates, or planning borrowing decisions, the Fed’s language and dot plot will be key — not the decision itself.
