#FOMCMeeting The Federal Reserve is meeting today (June 17) and tomorrow (June 18), concluding with a policy statement at 2 p.m. ET followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET .

The current target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% – 4.50%, unchanged since December 2024 .

🛑 Market Outlook & Fed Expectations

Nearly all economists and traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady, given economic uncertainty—especially from tariffs and recent geopolitical tensions .

CME FedWatch shows a 98% probability the rate stays at 4.25%–4.50% .

The dot‑plot and Summary of Economic Projections to be released may signal fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated .

📊 Key Data Considered

Inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are cooling softly, nearing the Fed’s 2% target .

Labor markets remain strong, with an unemployment rate around **4.2%** .

However, uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs and Middle East tensions spiking oil prices may favor caution .