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B4dManTRADING
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#FOMCMeeting 🏦 What Happened – Key Takeaways: 1. Policy Decision The Fed unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, continuing the pause that began in May . 2. **Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)** The dot-plot likely retained a cautious stance—only a couple of rate cuts expected in 2025—and policymakers emphasized uncertainty over global trade, tariffs, inflation, and labor markets . 3. Fed's Messaging Policymakers described activity as “solid” and inflation as “somewhat elevated,” signaling a data-dependent, wait‑and‑see approach, monitoring labor market trends and tariff effects . 4. Economic Context Recent data show moderating inflation with CPI and PPI readings softening, labor markets cooling modestly (unemployment steady at ~4.2%), but tariff-induced price risks remain . 5. Political Pressure President Trump has been publicly pushing for aggressive cuts (even calling Powell a “numbskull”), but the Fed is keen to preserve its independence and avoid a politically driven decision . 📌 What to Watch Going Forward: Market Expectations Futures markets indicate a first cut likely in September, with about a 55–60% probability, assuming inflation continues to ease . Upcoming Data Triggers Watch for retail sales, jobless claims, and new inflation numbers, which will heavily influence timing. The next major central bank event is Jackson Hole in August, often used to signal rate paths
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