As U.S.-Iran tensions rise, Polymarket bettors predict strike before end of June

As Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Polymarket traders pushed the odds of a U.S. strike on Iran before July to 67% as of Monday, up from 35% on March 31.

Though no official military orders have been issued by the Trump administration, speculation is fueled by U.S. military deployments and Trump’s stance that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.

Following Israeli air and drone attacks on Thursday, Bitcoin dropped 4% from a high of $108,500 to $103,556.

Social platform X has launched a real-time news analysis tool in partnership with Polymarket, using xAI’s chatbot Grok and market data to explain price movements.

Although the "Yes" probability has since declined to 50%, Polymarket continues to reflect growing fears of military confrontation in the Middle East.