Breaking! Trump team throws a heavyweight proposal: Talks with Iran on nuclear agreement + ceasefire this week! The Middle East powder keg suddenly cools down, and the 'risk-averse logic' in the crypto market is directly overturned — BTC just touched 108,000 and then plunged, how severe is this impact?

1. Geopolitical conflict → The underlying logic of crypto market fluctuations (historical review)

🔍 The fiercer the conflict, the higher BTC rises:


  • 2024 Israel-Palestine conflict escalation: BTC surged 15% in 7 days, with risk-averse funds pouring in wildly

  • 2025 Iran's counterattack fails: BTC retraces 8% from 110,000 due to cooling 'war expectations'
    → Essence: BTC isa 'risk thermometer' for geopolitical conflicts, the intensity of the conflict directly determines the flow of funds!

2. Three major impact signals of the current market

⚠️ Shock 1: Risk-averse funds flee overnight

  • Futures long positions plummet by 12% (CoinGlass data), three 'thousand-coin sell orders' suddenly appear above 107,000

  • USDT premium drops from +0.3% to 0.1%, demand for stablecoins falls sharply (market: no longer panicking...)

⚠️ Shock 2: Related markets linked to a crash

  • Gold falls below $2,300 (2% drop in one day), oil drops below $75, crypto market under pressure as well

  • US military-industrial sector plunges 3%, risk assets collectively 'cool down'

⚠️ Shock 3: Bullish confidence hit hard

  • 4-hour MACD shows ** 'top divergence', if 106,000 support breaks, fear a pullback to 104,000 **

3. Practical Response Strategies (Short-term + Long-term)

✅ Short-term defense (focus on survival):

  • For those with no positions: Do not catch the falling knife if 106,000 breaks; wait for 104,000 support to re-enter

  • For those with positions: Reduce holdings by 30% above 107,000, set stop-loss at 105,000 (liquidate directly if it breaks)

✅ Long-term opportunities (betting on a reversal):

  • If the talks fail (Iran refuses to talk / talks collapse), BTC may rebound to test 110,000, consider placing long positions

  • Pay attention to 'war insurance' tokens (like NXM), there is still speculative space during the repeated conflict period

4. Key time points to watch closely!

  • Tonight at 22:00: Iran's response (accept/reject?)

  • Tomorrow morning: Trump team's briefing (releasing negotiation details)

  • Weekend: Draft nuclear agreement exposed (will there be concessions?)
    Every step could trigger market movements, recommend setting 'price alerts'!


Conclusion: Middle East talks are a 'Schrodinger's bomb' — success means short-term pressure on crypto, failure leads to a violent rebound. The key now: focus on the 105,000 support and Iran's stance; getting the direction right can lead to big gains!

#以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC $ETH