$BTC BTC overview analysis
The inflow of funds into Bitcoin CEX has dropped below the 1-year average – Is the buying side losing momentum or gaining an advantage?
Bitcoin continues to show resilience despite increased volatility due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Geopolitical tensions have led to strong moves across global markets, but BTC remains steady above $105,000. This price action indicates that the market is in a waiting phase—investors are cautious but not selling aggressively, possibly waiting for more clarity before committing to the next big move.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared important liquidity data that helps explain the current market mood. In December 2024, when BTC traded in the range of $98,000 to $100,000, the average daily inflow of USDT and USDC into centralized exchanges (CEX) reached a record high of $131 billion. This steady inflow signals strong buying pressure and bullish momentum at that time.
However, by June 2025, the daily inflow of funds has significantly cooled down to around $70 billion—$5 billion lower than the 365-day average and $61 billion lower than the peak in December. This decline indicates a natural slowdown in liquidity due to exchange-driven factors, which often drive prices higher. However, with Bitcoin still holding above $105,000, it seems that market participants remain confident, and the current phase may just reflect consolidation before the next breakout.
Bitcoin consolidates amid uncertainty and slower liquidity flows.
Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after a strong price increase that took the price from $74,000 to an all-time high of nearly $112,000. This pullback occurs amid a complex macroeconomic environment marked by rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. These overlapping risks have put significant pressure on investor sentiment, making the coming weeks critical in determining Bitcoin's next big move.
Despite the volatility, many analysts remain optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to regain its previous highs and enter a price discovery phase. Market participants continue to monitor on-chain metrics and liquidity to assess sentiment and confidence.
A key insight comes from Axel Adler, who shared that in December 2024—when BTC traded in the range of $98,000–$100,000—the inflow of USDT and USDC into centralized exchanges peaked at $131 billion. By June 2025, that inflow has decreased to $70 billion per day, down $5 billion from the 365-day average and down $61 billion from the December peak.
This significant decline in liquidity reflects a cooling of speculative momentum. However, BTC holding above $100,000 suggests that long-term holders remain committed, and there has not been a widespread sell-off. This indicates that the market may be going through a phase of healthy base-building before another breakout.
Price action remains stable within the main range.
The 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows BTC trading at $106,881, holding above the important support level of $103,600, which has acted as a base since late May. Despite recent volatility due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic instability, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation range between $103,600 and $109,300, respecting both the lower and upper boundaries of this range.
Prices are currently pushing above the 100-day SMA (green line), indicating that buyers are entering dynamic support levels. A bullish crossover of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs continues to support short-term bullish momentum. However, BTC is still trading below the resistance level of $109,300, which continues to act as a strong supply zone. A decisive breakout above this level could confirm the continuation of the trend and set the stage for another test of the all-time high of $112,000.
Volume remains relatively stable but lacks strength compared to previous impulsive moves. If Bitcoin can build momentum and close above $107,000 with strong buying volume, it could pave the way for a breakout. On the negative side, losing $103,600 would invalidate the current structure and could potentially lead to a further retreat to the 200-day SMA, currently near $94,000. Currently, this structure favors those who are patient.
