SHIB Alert! Oversold rebound imminent? Support death line at $0.012, a bear trap or a precursor to a crash? Quick look at emergency strategies!
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Current price $0.012054 is close to the 1-hour lower band ($0.012045), deviating 3.36% from the middle band, significant oversold signal.
• MA200: Current price is 3.22% below MA200 ($0.012455), bearish structure remains unbroken.
• Holding Cost: 2.46% below the holding cost ($0.012358), most holders are at a loss, high selling pressure risk.
2. Market Strength:
• Volume: 24-hour volume ratio surged by 261.5%, but the price only increased by 0.2%, showing a volume-induced stagnation, clear signs of major players unloading.
• Open Interest: 1-hour open interest decreased by 1.12%, bears are dominant (long-short ratio surged by 3.3), net capital outflow of 138 million, short-term pressure.
3. Key Levels:
• Support: $0.012045 (Bollinger lower band) + $0.0118 (historical liquidity trough).
• Resistance: $0.012358 (holding cost) + $0.012455 (MA200).
Market Cycle
• Mid-Bear Market: 7-day decline of 7.79%, 30-day decline of 15.01%, no bottom structure observed, rebound is merely a technical correction.
Trading Strategy
1. Direction: Short-term short (1-3 days)
2. Levels:
• Entry: $0.01215 (rebound test of holding cost level)
• Stop Loss: $0.01240 (break above MA200 would indicate trend reversal)
• Target: $0.01180 (previous low liquidity area)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.4 (calculation: (0.01215-0.01180)/(0.01240-0.01215))
3. Risk Warning:
• If it rises above $0.01240, need to stop loss; beware of sudden favorable news for MEME coins triggering a short squeeze.
• Position ≤ 2%, avoid low liquidity periods in the Asian market.
> Summary: SHIB shows volume stagnation + bearish control, short at $0.01215 on rebound, target $0.01180, strict stop loss at $0.01240. In a weak market, risk-reward ratio is 1.4, act quickly!
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$1000SHIB