Bitcoin continues its upward trend, marking a complete recovery from the losses caused by the Israel-Iran conflict. A solid close above $107,000 at the end of the week has reinforced BTC/USD's position as the Wall Street stock market resumes activity.
What will Bitcoin's next move be in this context? Decisions regarding interest rates from the Federal Reserve are about to be made, while concerns about rising oil prices could lead to increased inflation.
In a notable move, both Bitcoin 'whales' and retail investors are maintaining a 'hodl' mode (holding Bitcoin long-term) at the current price level, indicating a strong consensus in holding this digital asset. Although the Perp trading market (perpetual futures) continues to be discounted compared to spot prices, expectations of a potential short-selling wave may occur in the near future.
Bitcoin's price target remains very optimistic. The $200,000 level is not unattainable, and technical indicators have yet to show any signs that the long-term peak is approaching.
Liquidity concentrated when the weekly closing price is above $105,000
After a relatively slow week, Bitcoin is quickly regaining what it has lost, surpassing the $107,000 mark right at the start of the week. This indicates a strong recovery, with most of the negative impact from the immediate reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict having been erased.
Renowned trader Crypto Tony shared on X:
"Closing the week above $104,500 is a very positive sign. Just maintaining this momentum, everything will be fine."
This is an optimistic signal indicating that the market is finding stable footing after recent volatility.
Meanwhile, the early-week trading session on Wall Street has drawn attention to higher liquidity blocks than spot prices. Analyst Mark Cullen notes that the possibility of liquidity being lower than spot prices may also be realized, creating strong volatility.
According to data from CoinGlass, the liquidity of the order book is considered an important factor that could impact prices in the short term, with the $104,000 level being a price point to pay special attention to.
Rananjay Singh, an analyst and YouTube host, remarked:
"Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a small range this month, with a differential of only about 10% between the high and low. However, over the past four years, each month has shown larger fluctuations. This indicates a strong move is coming, which could be either up or down."
The FOMC week opens under the shadow of rising oil prices
The Fed's interest rate decision will be a key macroeconomic highlight this week, as geopolitical events continue to heighten risks in the fight against inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday is expected to continue to maintain a pause on interest rate cuts, which has long been anticipated throughout 2025, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Although the market has reflected the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates before September, pressure from US President Donald Trump has forced the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell into a difficult situation. Therefore, Powell's speech at the FOMC press conference will be closely watched by the market for signs of changes in Fed policy.
This meeting takes place in the context of rising oil and commodity prices, threatening to disrupt US inflation expectations, while trade tariffs have yet to fully reflect in macroeconomic data.
Mosaic Asset trading company stated:
"After dropping below the important support level of $66, oil prices have rebounded strongly due to geopolitical tensions and concerns about oil supply from the Middle East."
"Along with the weakening of the US Dollar Index (DXY), hitting its lowest point in over three years, commodity indices are nearing important resistance levels that have stood for years. A breakthrough at this point would have a significant impact on inflation expectations in the coming months."
On the Bitcoin side, a positive signal may come from historical precedent, where both a weak dollar and strong oil prices have acted as catalysts for BTC prices in the past.
However, in the latest analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, another outcome is beginning to emerge.
"Although most headlines indicate that the conflict situation will continue to escalate and may drag on for a long time, the stock market, on the contrary, is moving in the opposite direction. Stock indices have turned green, oil prices are only up 0.5%, while gold prices have dropped 0.5%."
"If the market genuinely feared a prolonged conflict, oil prices would have to surpass $100 per barrel. Conversely, oil prices are currently down by 10% from last week’s high."
Finally, Kobeissi concludes that the market is beginning to price in some form of 'peace agreement,' which could alleviate concerns and open new opportunities for markets.
Whales and retail investors in unison
Bitcoin whales, large investors with 'smart money' in the BTC ecosystem, often have differing strategies compared to retail investors under certain market conditions.
Large volume trades often execute buys very early, before the general public joins in. These whales will distribute coins once the market has stabilized, taking profits as retail investors begin to participate.
However, recent data from the CryptoQuant analytics platform has shown a rather rare trend, with a strong consensus between both whales and retail investors. Although these groups often have differing investment strategies, this time they are united in holding Bitcoin for the long term.
With a price of around $106,000, Bitcoin has become a 'solid investment' for many investors. According to Darkfost, a well-known contributor, BTC cash flows into Binance from both investor groups have dropped to their lowest since the beginning of the cycle. This indicates a very strong 'hodl' trend, rather than panic selling, which is a positive signal for the market.
CryptoQuant also indicates that current data is quite contrasting with market sentiment at the end of 2024, when BTC/USD reached record highs after seven months. At that time, both whales and retail investors acted 'in sync,' even though they chose to send BTC to exchanges for sale.
"In addition to the steady cash flow at the beginning of the cycle, there have been two significant periods when both whales and retail investors acted in unison. These times coincide with previous market peaks, when cash flows into Binance showed a clear synchronization between investor groups," Darkfost added. "The sharp decline in cash flow may indicate that most investors are currently waiting for clear signals from macroeconomics or simply maintaining strong confidence in Bitcoin's long-term trend."
The Bitcoin reserves of spot exchanges have recorded a significant decline, with 550,000 BTC withdrawn in just the past year, accounting for one-third of the total supply of these exchanges. This further reinforces confidence in the 'hodl' strategy of investors.
Binance Analysis: The potential for a short squeeze and the bullish outlook for BTC
Joao Wedson, a contributor to CryptoQuant and founder of the Alphractal analytics platform, is closely monitoring signs of a short squeeze and the price growth of Bitcoin on the Binance exchange.
According to him, in the current context, the price of BTC on derivative products remains lower than the spot market. However, if this differential reverses, it would be a very positive signal for buyers. He asserts:
"If the BTC price differential on Binance turns positive again, it will be a clear signal that the price could explode."
"Until this happens, we may see that many large organizations are creating selling pressure through short positions. This could create an opportunity for a short squeeze, as short sellers are up against long-standing whales (OG Whales) in the market."
Data from Alphractal indicates that the derivative discount remains high throughout 2025. This is a sign that the market has not experienced a strong correction like in the years 2021-2022, when the discount in derivative products was an indicator of a bear market. However, the current situation is markedly different:
"Unlike in 2021-2022, when this differential signaled a bear market, the current scenario has changed. We are at all-time highs, and the differential in derivative products continues to hold," Alphractal's report stated.
This may reflect the risk hedging of large organizations, price differential strategies, or the dynamics of ETF funds, which have recently attracted much attention in the Bitcoin investment community.
Overall, while there are still some bearish pressures from short-selling organizations, the Bitcoin market shows positive and potential signs, especially if a short squeeze occurs and the price differential shifts in favor of the buyers.
BTC price target: Aiming for new highs
Although Bitcoin's price has recently failed to break through the record high and shows signs of stagnation, many traders remain optimistic about the potential for strong growth in the future.
Some opinions suggest that BTC/USD is just preparing for a strong bullish move at the next resistance level, with the goal of breaking through record highs in the near future.
One of the standout forecasts comes from Alan Tardigrade, a renowned trader, who believes Bitcoin is developing in a 'broadening wedge' pattern. This pattern has formed over the past several weeks, and he predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in the next price rally.
"Bitcoin is trending upward in a broadening wedge pattern and is expected to reach $170,000 soon," Alan Tardigrade shared on June 15.
Alongside the $170,000 level, the $200,000 target is not out of reach in the current bull market. Many price indicators and technical analysis continue to show that the peak of the current market has yet to appear.
According to CoinGlass, a market analysis company, 30 indicators are currently urging investors to 'hold 100% allocation' in their investments, indicating that Bitcoin still has strong growth potential before reaching a long-term peak.
Factors such as the depreciation of the USD, the impact of ETF funds, and the stability of the macroeconomy could be catalysts helping Bitcoin continue its strong growth. The market still maintains an optimistic sentiment, with price patterns and indicators continuing to drive hopes for higher prices in the near future.
In summary, although BTC is currently experiencing a period of lull, signs from technical patterns and market analysis suggest that the price of $170,000 may just be an initial milestone on the journey towards $200,000 and beyond in the context of a strong growth market.