PredictIt, a decentralized prediction market, expects a 97.5% probability that #الاحتياطي_الفيدرالي #أسعار_الفائدة will not lower during its next meeting. This expectation aligns with the general market forecasts, which anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the near future. Both investors and analysts expect the Federal Reserve to delay changes to its policy until September.
Markets are tense ahead of important global decisions
Markets are preparing for a critical week, witnessing pivotal events in both the United States and the United Kingdom. Short-term market trends will be significant for investors in this category, as their outlooks are likely to be influenced by political and economic developments. The US Senate will vote on the "GENIUS" bill on Tuesday, June 17. This vote could have consequences related to innovation policies and regulations.
On Wednesday, June 18, two major economic announcements will be made. The UK will release inflation figures for the Consumer Price Index, followed by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Traders are also closely watching how the Federal Reserve continues to deal with inflation and economic pressures. The direction provided by the central bank could determine future interest rate movements and affect global liquidity.
The Federal Reserve will hold a press conference on Thursday. Its chair, Jerome Powell, will update monetary policy and present the central bank's perspective on economic conditions. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision later that same day. The decision will provide a clue on how the UK is combating inflation and economic growth.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates will depend on key economic indicators such as inflation and employment. Most analysts expect caution until the economy stabilizes. Any action could significantly impact financial markets, especially in light of signs of a slowdown.
The Federal Reserve at a crossroads: policy versus inflation data
Nevertheless, Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, which increases the level of political scrutiny in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Markets are closely monitoring the actions of the Federal Open Market Committee. Powell's statements are also under scrutiny for any indications of potential changes in interest rates.
Data from the Consumer Price Index released in May indicated a monthly inflation improvement of 2.4%, and an annual inflation increase to around 2.9%. These figures suggest a possibility of controlling inflation, which may lead the Federal Reserve to postpone any adjustments to interest rates.
Markets firmly believe that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates at this time. Everyone is waiting to hear what Powell says and how the new data will guide the next decision.
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