There is no point in hiding behind a finger. 2025 has been dominated by the performance of Bitcoin which, after the approval of the Spot ETF, began an unstoppable run that has led it to test new highs several times. A dominance that is becoming increasingly undisputed, while altcoins appear to be in serious difficulty.
The altseason, a term used to indicate that market phase where altcoins performed better than Bitcoin, is now a distant memory. Yet, according to data from Alphractal , a well-known on-chain analysis platform, something is moving.
In a post published on X, the analysis firm focuses entirely on Altcoin Dominance , the indicator that measures the market share held by altcoins, excluding stablecoins.
It is currently at 27.91%, which is close to an interesting support level. In the past, when the indicator touched 25%, significant movements were triggered. For example, in 2020, an altcoin dominance of 35% was reached and in 2021, it went beyond 50%.
In short, if the indicator were to drop by a few more percentage points and history repeats itself, a new Bull Run could occur.
The other side of the coin
But not everyone is optimistic. According to many analysts, especially the old-school altcoins , those that exploded between 2017 and 2020, have already given their all, with performances ranging from 100 to 1,000X.
And many believe that we are unlikely to see a generalized altcoin rally , but rather the success of a few selected cryptocurrencies, while all the others are destined for oblivion.
In the last Bull Ruin, for example, we saw great results achieved by Kaspa , Keeta, Virtuals and Solana , while other altcoins remained at a standstill.
Bitcoin plays another game
But while altcoins are searching for their true identity, Bitcoin continues to play another game.
Last week, during the escalation of war between Israel and Iran , the price collapsed from $107,000 to $102,000, with liquidations of over $1.4 billion in a few hours.
While retail investors were panic-selling, institutions were buying, according to data from Farside Investors , which recorded inflows of $1.37 billion into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, gold has reached $3,445, driven by the crisis in the Middle East and worse-than-expected US macroeconomic data. All eyes are now on the psychological threshold of $3,500.
Altcoins, Bitcoin, gold, all seem ready to move in an increasingly nervous and unpredictable environment. But if the altseason really returns, it will no longer be like the one of the past. It will be more selective, more violent, and perhaps even shorter. And those who arrive prepared, could be among the few to take advantage of it.
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