UniQuant Market Analysis

June 16, 2025

Market Situation: Fluctuating with a bullish bias, but upward momentum is insufficient

BTC is currently stable around $106k, and despite being affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market sentiment remains resilient, with the overall market capitalization rising approximately 0.87% to $3.31 trillion.

However, in the short term, it is still in a critical structural area, for example, a narrow fluctuation between 105k–106k; if it cannot effectively break above, it may tend toward fluctuation or correction in the short term.

2. Technical Signals: Mixed Bulls and Bears, Structure Unclear

From a technical indicator perspective, the 30-minute RSI is around 45, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover, creating a “rising wedge” structure, suggesting that short-term selling pressure may continue.

The current price is below the 50-day EMA, which exerts pressure on medium-term support; if it breaks below the 106k and 105k support levels, the target may point to the 104k or even 103k area.

3. Institutional Buying and Miner Dynamics

MicroStrategy continues to enter the market, while some miners reducing their positions brings bearish pressure but also decreases supply.

On-chain data shows that large holders like AguilaTrades added approximately 2500 BTC (about $262 million) in the early hours of this day, which may act as a short-term upward catalyst.

Market Game and Strategy Recommendations

Short-term: Observe the battle between bulls and bears near 106k, adopting a small position range trading strategy; if a successful breakout occurs, consider pursuing long positions.

Medium-term Layout: Wait for the price to pull back to the 103k–105k range and confirm a rebound signal before entering in batches, and strictly control positions if it breaks below 100k.

Long-term Trend: If there is a larger scale of capital inflows (such as large-scale net inflows from ETF funds) breaking above 106k, then the medium-term bull market structure will return.