As of June 16, 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin is priced at $106,380, having fallen from a high of $110,300 over the past four days, with a low of $103,700, continuing to show weakness and volatility. Ethereum has dropped below $2,800, while mainstream coins like SOL and AVAX have retreated over 8% in a single day, leading the total cryptocurrency market cap to decrease to $3.18 trillion. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged and released hawkish signals (expected to cut rates only once this year), with a strengthening dollar suppressing risk assets. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have driven up gold prices, but Bitcoin's safe-haven properties have not been validated, intensifying market skepticism.

Qin Ge Analysis

Core technical contradiction: Bitcoin at $106,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears, with the 30-minute MACD death cross and RSI (45.2) indicating weak rebound potential. If it loses the support at $103,150, it will trigger a long squeeze, targeting a drop to the $101,200 volume concentration area; conversely, a daily close above $107,000 is needed for a potential reversal.

Macro suppression logic: The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance of "only one rate cut this year" combined with rising U.S. Treasury yields (4.3%) creates a double squeeze. The correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 has risen to 0.85, with the Nasdaq falling 3.6% this week directly dragging down the crypto market, undermining its independent narrative.

Capital movement warnings:

Institutional ETF had a net outflow of $50 million in a single day, driven by short-term profit-taking;

Retail new addresses fell by 32% week-on-week, with high-cost environment suppressing participation;

Whale large transaction volume decreased by 40% week-on-week, with large funds waiting for lower entry points.

Operational strategy:

Spot holders should set stop-loss at $103,000, retaining 50% cash for additional purchases below $100,000;

Contract traders should short at $107,000 (stop-loss at $108,500), and flip to long if it breaks $107,500;

Increase allocation to gold (GLD) or short-term bonds (SHY) to 15% position to hedge against risks from both stocks and crypto.

Ultimate conclusion: The current market is trapped in a "liquidity contraction + narrative vacuum," with $106,000 serving as a litmus test. Patient defense is preferable to aggressive bottom-fishing, waiting for the Federal Reserve's September policy or geopolitical breakthrough signals.