SOL spot ETF countdown: triple logic supports the must-buy point of $160
1. ETF expectations: landing in 3-5 weeks, pledge income detonates nuclear bomb-level market
90% probability of approval in July: SEC has asked Fidelity, Grayscale and other institutions to quickly revise the S-1 document to clarify the terms of physical redemption and pledge, and the approval process has been greatly advanced from the original October to mid-July
Pledge income = Super Buff: Canada SOL ETF annualized income of 7%-10% has verified the feasibility of the model. If the United States follows up, institutional funds can enjoy the double dividends of "coin price + interest", crushing BTC/ETH ETF
Price calculation: GSR model shows that if the capital inflow reaches BTC 5% of ETF, SOL will hit $500 (3.4 times); if it reaches 14%, it will aim for $800
Key data: Polymarket forecast contract shows that the probability of approval in July soared 45% to 90% in a single day
2. On-chain ecology: Tugou resurrection + technology crushing, SOL becomes the only winner
Meme leader outbreak: FARTCOIN market value stabilizes at 1 billion, AURA soars 200 times in three days, on-chain DEX daily trading volume of 2.5 billion US dollars crushes ETH
Technology crushes ETH: 65,000 TPS + $0.01 Gas fee, 50+ new Meme coins are born in a single day, ETH ecology has been lost
Pledge rate 65% protection: more than three-quarters of tokens participate in pledge, annualized return 7.56% is 2.4 times that of Ethereum, forming a natural selling pressure buffer
3. Technical aspect: daily line Double bottom confirmed, short position liquidation line approaching
Bottom pattern: 140 US dollars forms a daily double bottom, EMA golden cross verifies the bullish trend, 4-hour MACD turns red + RSI leaves the oversold zone
On-chain data: open contracts are 5.3 billion US dollars, short positions account for a sharp drop to 28%, and liquidation lines are concentrated at 130-135 US dollars
Risk hedging: Beware of SEC's face change and tax bombs
Legal risks: SEC still retains the "securities attribute" accusation of SOL, and reopening the investigation may cause a short-term plunge
Tax traps: Pledge income may be taxed by the IRS at a labor income tax rate of 37%, and institutions face the risk of "earning 40,000 and paying 130,000"
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