ETF

SOL Spot ETF or July Launch: Can It Replicate the BTC Surge Myth?

1. Regulatory Acceleration: Solana ETF Approval Enters Sprint Phase
On June 11, the SEC requested amendments to the S-1 filing's staking terms, signaling a loosening of regulations and promising feedback within 30 days, with the market expecting approval by mid-July at the earliest.

2. Institutional Competition: Seven Giants Compete for Entry Tickets
Seven asset management institutions, including VanEck and Grayscale, have submitted applications, with Grayscale planning to convert its SOL trust into a spot ETF, replicating the compliant path of BTC/ETH.

3. Historical Comparison: Insights from BTC's Surge and ETH's Mediocrity
BTC Case: After ETF approval in January 2024, it surged from $27,000 to $73,000 (2.7 times), but initially experienced a short-term pullback of 21%.
ETH Contrast: After approval in May of the same year, it only rose by 30%, as staking rewards were excluded, and plummeted by 30% within a month after trading opened.

4. Opportunities and Risks for SOL
Upside Expectations: The GSR model indicates that if capital inflows reach 5% of BTC's, SOL could rise from $160 to $500 (3.4 times).
Risk Points: Early investor selling pressure, undefined staking reward mechanisms, and the risk of on-chain liquidity migration.

5. Core Variables: Short-Term Speculation vs. Mid-Term Testing
Short-term capital expectations may drive prices up to $200-300, while mid- to long-term outcomes depend on whether the ETF can integrate staking rewards and the capacity of the on-chain ecosystem to absorb incremental growth.

Summary: The launch of the Solana ETF may trigger short-term volatility, but replicating the BTC script requires overcoming both regulatory and ecological challenges.