GM🧇☕️ The #貝兒周一報報 is here, let's take a look at the dynamics and trends that need attention, kicking off a busy week! Any thoughts or suggestions are welcome for discussion!
[Conclusion first]
This Friday (06/19), the United States will hold an interest rate meeting, with the market estimating a 96.9% probability of maintaining the current rate. Attention should be paid to whether international events like the Israel-Iran conflict and China-U.S. trade issues will increase uncertainty regarding rate cuts.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has temporarily intensified price volatility, and in the long term, it may lead to a rebound in inflation. Watch for whether the war continues or expands.
In the short term, attention can be focused on the liquidity liquidation point at $111,000 above price level for $BTC , while the high turnover area at $102,000 below and the key support area at $92,000 should also be noted.
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[Detailed content starts here ⬇️]
This Friday (06/19), the United States will hold an interest rate meeting, with the market estimating up to 96.9% probability of maintaining the current rate. Afterward, it is crucial to pay attention to whether the Israel-Iran conflict and China-U.S. trade issues will impact inflation, thereby increasing the uncertainty of a final rate cut of one or two basis points in 2025.
Israel launched an attack on Iran on 06/13, causing BTC price to briefly fall below $103,000, with a 24-hour drop of up to 5%, triggering a liquidation of $1 billion. The geopolitical war risk not only intensifies short-term price volatility but also has long-term implications for oil prices, which may lead to a resurgence of inflation. It is essential to monitor whether the subsequent war risk continues or expands.
Sosovalue data shows that the fear and greed index has returned to neutral. The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to grow, while the BTC ETF shows a decreasing trend in capital momentum. Bitfinex long leveraged positions have ended two months of net outflow as holdings bottomed out. The volatility of options has slightly increased; meanwhile, the ∆25 Skew data has shifted from neutral to slightly bearish.
The BTC CME futures price currently has no short-term gaps, and from the perspective of volume distribution, the price remains at the VAH since November. There are two strong support zones below: one is $92,000~$95,000, formed by the POC since November and the VAH from the March decline, which is expected to be a key point during a short-term pullback; the other falls in the range of $80,000~$84,000, primarily composed of the VAH since 2024, the VAL since November, and the POC since February's decline. From the liquidation map, last week's shorts at $107,000 have been completely liquidated, with larger shorts stacking at $111,000. Currently, the overall price range is compressed in a fluctuation between $100,000~$110,000.
