XRP has a 70% chance of outperforming Bitcoin, says analyst.

A new XRP/BTC chart released on June 12 by the market technician known as Dr. Cat has brought new controversy to one of the most stubborn trading pairs in the crypto market. The analyst, posting on X, argues that despite a sharp six-week decline, conditions still favor an eventual breakout for XRP that would leave Bitcoin behind. He assigns the scenario a formidable probability of 70%.

At the core of Dr. Cat's thesis is the level of 2,041 satoshis, where three distinct Ichimoku time frames—monthly, bi-monthly, and quarterly—intersect. “The price continues to consume support after support without any reaction from the bulls, as if the supports do not exist,” he admits, but emphasizes that this specific range is “the most important support.” The candles on the monthly chart are already hovering just below the line; a decisive monthly close below it, he warns, would make the three-day structure fully bearish and disperse the pair into unpredictable, possibly chaotic ranges.

Even so, the strategist insists that history is on the side of XRP bulls. “The price has spent years doing very well and coiling with higher lows for this attack now,” he writes, framing the last twelve quarters as a prolonged accumulation that has never abandoned its series of higher macro lows. This coiling, he believes, will allow XRP to mount at least a “minor attack in August” towards the 3,000 satoshis region—approximately a 45% appreciation from current levels—and perhaps fuel a “much larger attack” once the broader market cycle matures.

Optimism is not unconditional. Dr. Cat calculates a 30% chance of a complete failure if 2,041 sats fails on a monthly closing basis. Under this bearish branch, the crossing could fall to 1,800 – 1,900 sats, attempt a weak recovery, or continue a “slow bleed to the bottom of the range where the monstrous move started.” In such a setback, he wouldn’t expect the long-awaited “monstrous bullish move” until the fourth quarter of 2025 at the earliest.

For now, therefore, the market relies on a single number. Staying above 2,041 and Dr. Cat sees a clear chance of outperforming Bitcoin—first modestly, then dramatically. Slipping below that, and the roadmap dissolves into what he calls a direct form of an “unpredictable/chaotic” extension. In any case, XRP traders now know exactly where the pivot of the cycle resides and precisely how tight the margin for error has become. At the time of publication, XRP was trading at $2.1287.