A peer-reviewed financial study has ignited new debate in the crypto world.
Published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, the study models Bitcoin’s future using a rigorous supply and demand framework. The core claim? Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2027, if current institutional adoption and strategic reserve withdrawals continue.
The model hinges on Bitcoin's fixed, inelastic supply. With nearly 94% of coins already mined, any increase in demand—especially from governments and corporations—can drive prices up sharply due to liquidity constraints.
What sets this model apart is its use of CES demand curves and real-world issuance schedules post the April 2024 halving. It suggests even modest daily withdrawals to long-term reserves can trigger a compounding scarcity effect on price.
In a “bull scenario,” where institutional buying accelerates and 2000 BTC are withdrawn daily from the liquid supply, Bitcoin is forecast to cross the $1M threshold by early 2027—and potentially reach $5M by 2031.
The authors stress this isn’t just a theoretical upper bound—it’s grounded in economic fundamentals, calibrated with recent data, and presented as a tool for investors and policymakers alike.
This projection challenges older models like Stock-to-Flow or power law patterns. Instead of assuming decreasing volatility, it warns of potential hyperbolic moves as available Bitcoin dries up.
Whether this future plays out or not, the message is clear: Bitcoin’s economics are entering a new phase, and so should the way we think about its value.
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