Bitcoin Review of the Week 2025/6/15
1. BTC key price analysis:
Support level: $104,000 (a break below this level could trigger a $1 billion long position liquidation)
Resistance: $106,500 (a breakout would open up a path to $120,000+).
💡 Current strategy: Buy low near 104,000, chase the rise after breaking through 106,500, and strictly stop loss.
2. Abnormal phenomenon: BTC and US Treasury yields "broke up"
Traditional relationship: Previously, when US bond yields rose, BTC fell (funds flowed to the safe haven of government bonds)
Current anomaly: In June 2025, U.S. Treasury yields soared, but BTC bucked the trend and stabilized at $105,000, with the two moving in opposite directions.
Simply put: before “US Treasury bonds rose → BTC fell”, now “US Treasury bonds rose → BTC followed suit”, the rules have changed!
3. Root cause: BTC role upgrade
Bitcoin is changing from a "high-risk gambling tool" to a "new safe-haven asset", similar to an upgraded version of gold:
Institutions are entering the market in large numbers: 139 institutions (including ETFs, national funds, and listed companies) have hoarded 3.31 million BTC (accounting for 15.8% of the total), voting with real money to trust BTC.
Anti-geopolitical conflict: Amid the tense situation in the Middle East, BTC briefly fell to $104,000 and then quickly rebounded, with investors buying on dips (support level $105,000).
Fighting the debt crisis: The world is worried about the risk of the US's 36.8 trillion national debt. BTC has become a new destination for funds because of its constant total amount and lack of reliance on national credit.
4. Market status: ready to go
Institutional behavior: voting with real money
Key data: BTC stocks on exchanges dropped to 25,000 (annual decrease of 21%), and OTC counter balances dropped sharply by 36%. The tighter the liquidity, the easier it is to rise.
Short-term risks:
If the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield breaks through 5.15% (the high in May 2025), it could trigger a global panic sell-off.
5. BTC is rewriting the rules of macroeconomics
Structural transformation: BTC is not only "digital gold", but also "the antidote to the sovereign debt crisis" + "new reserve asset", and therefore deviates from the logic of US debt fluctuations.
6. BTC is replacing some of the safe-haven functions of U.S. debt.
When U.S. Treasuries change from "safe assets" to "source of risk", BTC is upgrading to "Digital Gold 2.0".
7. Countermeasures for retail investors:
➤ Hold core positions (BTC+ETH) and avoid frequent operations;
➤ Ignoring short-term fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts and short-term liquidation (only 131 million in 24 hours) have limited impact on the trend;
➤ Waiting for two major favorable factors: the Fed’s interest rate cut or BTC breaking through 120,000 will trigger the altcoin season.
➤ Summary in one sentence: BTC no longer depends on U.S. debt, it has become the big brother!
💡 💡 💡Weekend cottage
1. Current market status: ice and fire
Why is ETH (Ethereum) rising?
BlackRock (the world's largest asset management company) has placed US$2.68 billion of its Treasury bond funds on Ethereum (accounting for 92%).
Key logic: If there are 100 billion assets on the chain in the future, the cost for hackers to attack Ethereum is only 31.5 billion (based on the current currency price). This is too dangerous!
→ Therefore, the price of ETH must increase to make the cost of attack higher in order to protect these huge assets.
BlackRock will continue to push up ETH (such as issuing ETFs and increasing positions) because it is betting on the future of Ethereum. It is only a matter of time before ETH surges!
How is the overall situation of altcoins?
Stablecoin liquidity is abundant: the total market value of stablecoins has reached US$241 billion (non-US stablecoins account for 72%), providing ammunition for potential altcoin trends, but there has not yet been a large-scale inflow.
Low inflows into exchanges: The number of daily transfers of altcoins into exchanges is less than 30,000, far below the peak of the bull market, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell.
More declines than increases: Most altcoins are still falling, and funds are flowing into BTC and ETH.
Local opportunities: ETH and AAVE have performed strongly recently, and funds are investing in projects with “real potential”.
Retail investor sentiment: Many people are calling for “buying the dip”, but big funds have not made any big moves yet (240 billion in stablecoins are lying idle).
2. Is the altcoin season coming?
✅ Reasons for support:
Historical rules: In the past, every altcoin season saw a sharp rise in prices, which almost always started in June. Now many coins are at the “floor price”.
Indicators met: Professional indexes showed that the “copycat season” was about to start (greater than 25).
Infrastructure keeps up: Ethereum's Layer2 (speed-up network) processing capacity has increased by 36%, and can carry more applications.
⚠️ Suppressive factors:
Bitcoin is still sucking blood: Bitcoin's market share is still at a high level, greater than 63%, and all funds are in BTC and not distributed to altcoins.
Dragged down by U.S. stocks: Nasdaq fell, and Bitcoin followed suit (85% correlation), making it even harder for altcoins to take off.
Lack of new funds entering the market: The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, and the on-chain capital inflow was still lower than the bull market peak at the end of 2024, and there was insufficient incremental funds.
3. Which altcoins are worth paying attention to?
Public chain sector: TRX, AVAX, ADA
Ai plate: TAO
RWA board: ONDO
Oracle: LINK
DeFi: AAVE
💡 Remember:
Don’t touch small coins (outside the top 100 in market capitalization): 90% of them die in every bull market, and returning to zero is the norm.
ETH is the core: BlackRock is personally involved, and the RWA story has just begun.
4. Operation strategy: according to your risk preference
🛡️ Conservatives (afraid of losing money)
Main warehouse BTC+ETH (accounting for more than 70%): big funds are buying, and they can withstand the decline.
Buy RWA coins (AAVE/LINK) with small money: follow BlackRock and enjoy the soup.
🚀 Radicals (want to make quick money)
Soha ADA: high institutional recognition and strong explosive power.
Ambush Tao/ONDO: With government/corporate cooperation, the odds are higher (but may be zero).
⚡ Risk-averse focus
June 14 (Trump’s birthday): Beware of sudden remarks that could cause the market to crash.
If BTC falls below $104,000, it may trigger a series of plunges (more than 1 billion orders will be liquidated).
The last truth
Now is the sowing period for altcoins, not the harvesting season.
If you have patience: Buy ETH, ADA, AAVE, TAO in batches now, and wait for funds to rotate to altcoins.
If you are afraid of missing out: use 10% of your spare money to invest in high-odds coins (such as TRX), and losing it all will not affect your life.
Don’t do the following: borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrencies, chase after rising MEME dogs, or buy junk coins at a bargain price!
The market is waiting for two favorable factors: the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or BTC breaks through $120,000.
When the wind comes, even pigs can fly—but you have to get in the right position in advance.
1. Greed and Fear Index Today: 50 Neutral Declined from yesterday
** Greed Panic/ Greed Index Interpretation
The behavior of the cryptocurrency market is very emotional. When the market is rising, people tend to be greedy and have a fear of missing out, and when the market is falling, they react irrationally by selling their cryptocurrencies.
With the help of the fear and greed index, we can help our friends get rid of the influence of their own emotional factors and make irrational judgments as much as possible.
There are two states:
Extreme fear indicates that investors are overly worried and could be a buying opportunity.
Being too greedy suggests that investors are too excited and the market may be due for a correction.
2. Bitcoin’s total market share: 63.49, basically the same as yesterday
**Bitcoin's total market share is a core indicator to measure Bitcoin's relative influence in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator not only reflects Bitcoin's short-term market position, but also reveals changes in capital rotation, investor sentiment and macro trends.
Bitcoin market share is a barometer for judging the market stage:
Early stage of bull market: market share increases, and funds are allocated to Bitcoin first.
Mid- to late-stage bull market: Market share declines, funds rotate to altcoins, triggering the “altcoin season”
Market thermometer: >60% = risk aversion; <40% = altcoin frenzy.
Fund flow chart: reveals the allocation preferences of institutions and retail investors (Bitcoin → stable, altcoin → high risk and high return)
3. Bitcoin and Ethereum trading pair 0.024099 Ethereum to Bitcoin trading pair has rebounded
**The Bitcoin/Ethereum trading pair is the “risk thermometer” of the cryptocurrency market:
Ratio rises → market prefers high-risk assets (signal of the start of the altcoin season);
Ratio decreases → funds flee to Bitcoin (characteristic of a bear market or early bull market).
4. On-chain BTC retail, large and institutional buying and selling data statistics Big whales have had net inflows for three consecutive days
Thanks to @交易扑克大 for providing data collation and sharing
Data description: Represents the increase or decrease of on-chain flow of ≤ 1 BTC, 1-10 BTC, 10-100 BTC, and 100+ BTC respectively. This data can reflect the market sentiment of retail investors, large investors, and institutions.
Data description: This data reflects the increase or decrease of on-chain flows of ≤ 1 BTC, 1-10 BTC, 10-100 BTC, and 100+ BTC within a week. This data can intuitively reflect the flow trend of BTC among retail investors, large investors, and institutions in the market.
When an extreme situation occurs in the on-chain data, a reversal often occurs (for example, if a large whale with more than 100 BTC on the chain buys a large amount, while others sell, the probability of Bitcoin rising greatly increases, and vice versa). At the same time, it is necessary to combine the analysis with other on-chain data and technical indicators.
6. US dollars flow into the cryptocurrency market and there is a continuous net inflow
7. Net inflow of fiat-backed stablecoins (USD stablecoins with market value > 100M) A small amount of net inflow has occurred
The above data only represents the prediction of BTC volatility trend and market sentiment from the perspective of on-chain data, and does not represent any investment advice. Please make your decision carefully! !
I am Mingzhu. Follow me and I will share real-time data and dynamics on the chain every day to help my friends predict and make decisions. Don’t miss the excitement. Welcome to leave a message for discussion.
