June 15, 2025 – Key XRP news out of the U.S. legal and regulatory arena is setting the stage for a potential major swing in XRP’s price. With a critical SEC-spot ETF deadline looming and Judge Analisa Torres expected to rule on a joint motion between Ripple and the SEC, XRP traders are bracing for volatility—possibly a breakout.
🔍 1. Court Ruling in Focus: Will the Injunction Be Lifted?
On June 12, Ripple and the SEC submitted a second joint filing asking Judge Torres to issue an indicative ruling that would:
1. Lift the existing injunction preventing institutional sales of XRP.
2. Reduce the remaining $125 million penalty by prescribing a $50 million civil fine and releasing $75 million back to Ripple .
This request addresses procedural shortfalls from their May attempt and frames the move as essential to achieving settlement and halting pending appeals .
Crypto-law expert John Deaton gave Ripple a 70 % probability of success, noting that both sides argue the injunction places Ripple at a competitive disadvantage .
Legal commentators diverged: former SEC attorney Marc Fagel said the motion aims to “avoid…appeal,” while Fred Rispoli criticized its brevity .
Why it matters: A favorable ruling could end the SEC v. Ripple saga by prompting both parties to withdraw appeals. This resolution would remove a major cloud over XRP and could clear the path toward U.S. spot XRP ETF issuance .
⏳ 2. ETF Deadline Arriving Fast
June 17 marks the SEC’s deadline to act on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF application .
The timing creates a unique intersection: judge’s ruling expected around the same time, combining legal and regulatory catalysts.
If Ripple regains clarity via court and the SEC greenlights an ETF, it could propel XRP toward its all-time high near $3.55 .
📉 3. Price & Technical Snapshot
XRP currently trades between $2.10–$2.30, bouncing off its 200‑day EMA and technical support around $2.09 .
Volatility metrics have compressed—spot volumes are down ~4%, while derivatives volume is up ~9%, signaling traders preparing for a breakout .
Analysts highlight resistance at $2.30–$2.33; a clear move above could pave the way to $2.50–$2.60, while breaking below $2.20 risks a dip toward $2.10 .
💡 4. Implications for XRP’s Future
Scenario Likely Outcome
Judge lifts injunction + ETF approval Major catalyst: XRP could retest highs (~$3.55) as institutional interest ramps up.
**Mixed result (court OK, ETF delayed)** Moderate upside; legal clarity helps but ETF delays limit momentum.
Rules against Ripple or ETF denied Headline disappointment → potential pullback toward $2.00.
Recent institutional developments like Trident’s $500 million XRP treasury plan further highlight growing confidence in XRP’s real-world utility—potential tailwinds even if ETF progress is slow .
🛎️ Bottom line: The convergence of Judge Torres' ruling (expected imminently) and the SEC’s June 17 ETF decision creates a potent setup. XRP is “coiling for volatility”—trading tight ahead of a likely sharp move in
either direction. Investors should watch June 16–17 closely.