Momentum Weakening in Bitcoin: Market Confidence Decreasing
Despite the recent price recovery, Bitcoin has started to lose upward momentum according to technical indicators. The Advanced Sentiment Index fell below neutral levels with a $4.1 billion decline in open positions. This indicates that the market is becoming increasingly cautious.
Fundamental indicators such as Net Buying Volume and Balance Volume (OBV) also show that investors have lost confidence in the upward trend. According to COINOTAG data, for Bitcoin to regain momentum, OBV needs to rise above the -80K level, and the sentiment index must increase above 65%. Otherwise, the possibility of the price retreating to around $101,500 remains on the agenda.
Advanced Sentiment Index in Sharp Decline: Risky Signals Increasing
The Advanced Sentiment Index for Bitcoin dropped from over 80% last week to 46.1% this week. This decline occurred during a period when Bitcoin approached $106,000, clearly highlighting the discrepancy between price increases and market sentiment.
On the other hand, Open Interest (OI) volume also showed a significant decline. Falling from $37.8 billion to $33.7 billion, OI indicates a total capital outflow of $4.1 billion. Such a decrease generally indicates that investors are closing positions and avoiding risk, which brings about a decrease in market liquidity and loss of confidence.
Volume Indicators Warn: Bulls Are Retreating
During the same period, Net Buying Volume decreased, and Volume Delta is hovering near zero. This indicates that the inflow of new money into the market is limited and that investors are reluctant to buy.
Balance Volume (OBV) is still trading below the 100K level. This situation indicates that a strong buying pressure capable of sustaining price increases has not yet formed. In particular, it has been observed that profit-taking has increased among Long-Term Holders (LTH). The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) data for this group reveals that profit realizations are high and that investors see current prices as an exit opportunity.
Critical Thresholds and Possible Scenarios
Bitcoin is currently continuing to consolidate within a narrow price range between $102K and $105K. Low trading volume creates uncertainty in direction. A significant increase in volume and technical confirmation are required for an upward breakout.
It is important to meet the following two criteria for a new bull wave to begin:
Testing above -80K of OBV
Rising above 65% in the Sentiment Index
If these conditions are met, along with an increase in Net Buying Volume and renewed growth in open positions, market confidence can be rebuilt.
However, in case these signals do not arrive, selling pressure may continue to exert its effect, making it possible for Bitcoin to decline again towards $101,500, which is 102K or lower.
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