Currently, HOME is in an oversold state (price is 9.97% below holding cost, RSI 43 neutral to weak), but the order book shows strong short-term selling pressure (near area sell orders are 21.7K), and market trading volume is sluggish (ratio 0.375). It is recommended to watch or cautiously go long, entry at 0.0266, target 0.0294, stop loss at 0.0265, risk-reward ratio 28:1. Risk: Low liquidity or breaking support may exacerbate the decline, position control within 2%, avoid trading during Asian market hours.
Technical analysis
1. Price status:
• Bollinger Band position: Current price 0.02748 is near the lower band (31.95% position), suggesting low price volatility with rebound potential.
• MA200: Data missing, ignore analysis.
• Holding cost position: 0.030522, current price is below cost (-9.97% deviation), indicating oversold with strong rebound demand.
2. Market strength and weakness:
• Trading volume analysis: 24-hour trading volume ratio 0.375 (below historical average), market activity is low, insufficient participation from major players; price increased by 3.35% but volume decreased, indicating an unsustainable rebound signal.
• Open interest change: Open interest decreased by 79.57%, slightly diverging from a small price increase, indicating a dominant short covering and capital outflow.
• Smart money long-short ratio: The long-short ratio rises to 0.9184 (long positions increase), but the funding rate is negative (-0.00214947), indicating a conflicting signal and unprocessed potential selling pressure.
• Market news: No significant news, sentiment is neutral.
3. Key support and resistance levels:
• Support level: 0.026567 (Bollinger Band lower limit), reason: recent trading volume dense area (0.0264-0.0266 accounts for 31.35%).
• Resistance level: 0.029425 (Bollinger Band upper limit), reason: holding cost around 0.030522.
• Liquidity area: Total value of near area sell orders is 65.2K > buy orders 43.6K, forming short-term resistance; medium to long-term buy orders are strong (total value 177.3K), support near 0.0247.
• Buy-sell pressure ratio: buy/sell ratio 1.427, but near area sell orders are high, long-short strength is imbalanced, bearish in the short term.
• Liquidity gap: No significant gaps, but near area sell order barriers may trigger price volatility.
Market cycle analysis
Currently in a mid-bear market oscillation phase: Prices are below cost, open interest is decreasing, and trading volume is low, indicating capital is on hold with no clear reversal signal.
Trading strategy
• Entry point: 0.0266 (aggressive support level buy).
• Stop-loss point: 0.0265 (below the Bollinger Band lower limit).
• Target level: 0.0294 (Bollinger Band upper resistance).
• Risk-reward ratio: 28:1 (calculated based on long direction).
• Risk warning:
• Market risk: Low trading volume magnifies volatility, decreasing open interest indicates capital outflow; if it breaks below 0.0265 or macro events (like regulatory news) occur, the strategy will fail and must close positions.
• Operation notes: Single transaction risk ≤ 2% of total funds; avoid low liquidity periods (e.g., UTC 00:00-08:00).
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