With long-term holders selling and lacking strong upside catalysts above $111.8k, correction probability builds. The Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) Quantiles framework helps identify support levels by analyzing the cost basis of spent coins across 100 percentiles.

Key levels include the 0.95 quantile (top 5% of spent supply), 0.85 quantile (top 15%), and 0.75 quantile (top 25%). Historically, absolute euphoria occurs above the 0.95 quantile, sideways bull phases between 0.85-0.95, and bearish periods below 0.75.

Currently, the 0.95 quantile at ~$103.7k provides first support. If selling persists, the 0.85 quantile at $95.6k offers structural support, or if breached, confirms broader risk reset.

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