⚠️ ATTENTION: Raoul Pal Explains Why BTC Remains Unshaken
Renowned macro investor Raoul Pal argues that Bitcoin’s price movements are driven more by global liquidity (M2) than geopolitical events. Amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Pal shared a chart highlighting that 89% of Bitcoin's price action aligns with shifts in the global M2 money supply, not with war headlines or oil shocks.
🧠 Key Insight:
“Bitcoin moves with liquidity, not geopolitics.” – Raoul Pal
📊 Data Snapshot (June 2025):
• BTC price change: ▲ +0.02% despite major headlines
• Oil futures: ▲ +7% intraday surge (Alva)
• Incident: Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas facility (Kobeissi Letter)
• Expected oil impact: Further price spikes forecasted into Monday
🔍 Raoul Pal’s Liquidity Thesis:
• Correlation: 89% of BTC price moves match changes in global M2 supply
• Timeframe analyzed: Last 3 years
• Conclusion: Expansion in money supply > geopolitical shocks
Pal’s chart clearly shows that BTC rose consistently during periods of increased liquidity, regardless of:
• War events 🪖
• Rate hikes 📈
• Political uncertainty 🗳️
🧭 Implications for Traders & Investors:
• BTC trajectory remains macro-driven, not news-driven.
• Temporary volatility (oil, equities, politics) may cause minor pullbacks, but won’t alter long-term direction.
• Liquidity tracking tools (e.g., M2, central bank balance sheets) provide more actionable signals than headlines.
📌 Final Take:
While geopolitical risks shake oil and stock markets, Bitcoin continues to follow the liquidity map. Unless macro liquidity shrinks or surges dramatically, expect BTC to ignore short-term noise — and continue following the tide of global capital flows.
