๐ Chart Summary
Chart Type: Monthly (1M) candle chart
Ticker: TOTAL3BTC (Altcoin Market Cap / BTC Market Cap Ratio)
Indicator Applied: EMA 9 (Exponential Moving Average, 9-month close)
Current Ratio: ~0.287
Time Span: ~2014 to 2025
๐ง What This Chart Represents
This is the altcoin market dominance relative to Bitcoin. It reflects how strong altcoins are compared to Bitcoin based on total market capitalization (excluding BTC).
Rising Ratio โ Altcoins outperforming Bitcoin ("Altseason")
Falling Ratio โ Bitcoin dominating the market ("Bitcoin Season")
๐ Key Observations
1. Three Major Altcoin Seasons Are Clear
Early 2018: Peak above 1.5 (massive altseason post-2017 bull run)
Mid-2021: Second major spike near 0.6 during DeFi and NFT explosion
Smaller peaks: Seen in 2016, 2020, and early 2022.
2. Current Status: Near Major Support Zone
Ratio is around 0.287, approaching multi-year horizontal support near 0.22โ0.26.
Historically, this area precedes major altcoin rallies:
2016 โ Preceded 2017 altseason
Late 2019 โ Preceded DeFi summer 2020
Mid-2022 lows โ Local bottom before early 2023 alt recovery
3. EMA 9 Slope is Neutral-Bearish
The 9-month EMA (blue line) is slightly declining.
The price has been hovering just below the EMA, indicating altcoins are underperforming BTC, but not breaking down aggressively.
A decisive close above EMA may trigger reversal.
๐ Interpretation & Forward Outlook
โ Bullish Possibilities
Support Holding: If ~0.26โ0.28 level holds, historical patterns suggest a strong altcoin rebound could follow (i.e., another altseason).
Macro Cycle Alignment: If Bitcoin dominance peaks and Bitcoin cools down post-halving rally (like previous cycles), liquidity could rotate into alts.
โ Bearish Risk
A monthly close below 0.26 would break long-term support โ could imply extended BTC dominance.
This might align with macro uncertainty or ETF-centric BTC narratives drawing more capital into BTC over altcoins.
๐ Strategic Implications
Accumulation Zone: Historically, this region (~0.26โ0.29) has been a prime accumulation area for altcoins.
Watch for Confluence: Look for other signs like:
BTC dominance peaking
Alts breaking major technical levels upward
ETH/BTC and TOTAL3/USDT showing strength
Patience Needed: If BTC continues dominance, altseason could delay a few monthsโbut this level historically hasn't stayed suppressed long.
๐ง TL;DR (In One Line)
Youโre sitting at a historical support zone for altcoins vs BTC โ previous cycles show massive upside follows this zone, though you need patience and confirmation before going all in.
