Bitcoin Price Faces Critical Technical Crossroads Ahead of FOMC Meeting

As the Federal Open Market Committee prepares to announce its policy decision, Bitcoin’s price action reflects a delicate balance between bullish and bearish forces. The cryptocurrency has been consolidating within a well-defined triangle pattern since mid-April, currently trading near the $104,000 level. This consolidation phase is underscored by a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion and a dominance rate above 63%, signaling Bitcoin’s sustained market influence.

Technical indicators reveal nuanced insights: the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped below the overbought threshold, indicating waning upward momentum. Should the RSI averages fall beneath the neutral 50 mark, it would confirm a weakening trend, potentially signaling a short-term bearish shift. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands analysis shows Bitcoin retesting its middle band after failing to break the upper band resistance, suggesting increased price volatility and the possibility of a downward correction toward the $101,700 support level.

Potential Price Scenarios: Resistance at $107K Versus Support at $102K

The FOMC meeting outcome is expected to be a pivotal catalyst for Bitcoin’s immediate price direction. A hawkish stance or an unexpected rate hike could reinforce bearish sentiment, pushing Bitcoin toward the lower boundary of its triangle pattern near $102,470. Failure to hold this support may expose Bitcoin to further declines, potentially testing psychological and technical supports at $100,000 and $97,380 respectively.

Conversely, a dovish or neutral Fed decision could embolden bulls to challenge resistance levels around $107,218. Sustained momentum above this threshold might open the path for Bitcoin to revisit its all-time high near $111,970 later this month. Market watchers should remain vigilant for volume surges and confirmation signals that validate either scenario.