$BTC 📉 Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

$104,000–$104,500: Strong demand zone and buyer wall.

$100,000: Major psychological and structural support.

Key Resistance Levels:

$105,500–$106,500: Strong resistance zone.

$112,000: Previous major high, significant breakout point.

$125,000+: Bullish scenario target by some analysts.

---

🧠 Technical Indicators (Daily/4H Charts)

MACD: Bearish crossover on 4H and daily—momentum fading.

RSI: Neutral zone (40–50), suggests indecision; not overbought.

Bollinger Bands/EMAs: Price near the lower band; potential for bounce or further drop.

---

📊 Short-Term Scenarios

Base Case (~70%): Rejection near $105,500 leads to retesting $104,000 and potentially $100,000 support.

Bull Case (~30%): Strong breakout above $105,700 with high volume targets $112,000+.

Volatility remains high—daily swings of 2–5% are common.

---

🚨 Risks & Key Factors

1. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts have led to $1B+ in leveraged liquidations recently.

2. High Volatility: Short squeezes and whale activity can trigger sharp moves.

3. Regulatory Environment: Mixed—supportive in the U.S. and U.K., uncertain elsewhere.

---

🔮 Forecasts & Long-Term Outlook

Medium-Term Targets: $120K–$125K by end of Q2 if macro tailwinds hold.

Long-Term Outlook: Some analysts predict $150K–$200K by year-end 2025.

Institutions: Continue accumulating; Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative remains strong.