Make a bold inference:

If Aster does not have a TGE within a month, regardless of how good the current data looks, it is highly likely to end up in a mess.

Recently, the Aster team may be immersed in the joy of soaring trading volumes, even getting excited about "soon catching up with Hyperliquid."

On the surface, the data indeed looks impressive, but it is worth noting that: these trading volumes are likely not driven by a surge in real user demand, but rather built on unregulated airdrop expectations.

To put it bluntly: this is not data growth, but debt growth.

Up to now, Aster has not done any management of airdrop expectations, nor has it released a clear TGE schedule. Market enthusiasm continues to rise, and sentiment is approaching an overdrawn critical point; if the duration continues to be drawn out, the sense of disparity can easily transform into collective FUD.

I am not pessimistic about Aster, but past industry patterns have long proven: any short-term prosperity supported by airdrop expectations, without accompanying guidance in rhythm, sentiment management, and expectation anchoring, will ultimately backfire on the project itself, without exception.

We have seen too many projects take off due to "airdrop expectations" and then fall due to "fulfillment"; the root cause of all this has never been insufficient enthusiasm, but rather the project side's blindness to that enthusiasm, failing to realize the increasingly high user expectations behind it.

Without airdrop expectation management, it is highly likely to backfire, allowing the bubble to expand, which is almost equivalent to a chronic collapse.