More and more people are bearish, but is the market really going to crash?
As the market declines, bearish voices immediately erupt, with phrases like 'double top', 'big drop', 'at least needs to retest 80,000, 70,000' flying around. Many newcomers begin to panic, cut losses, and even get led into shorting.
But is the real trend really that simple?
From the daily line perspective, after this round of Bitcoin's correction, the bulls are building strength. Especially in the last two dips, trading volume has been continuously shrinking, indicating that the bears are running out of steam.
It's like a war—the bulls first occupy the high ground, the bears' counterattack fails, and after a tactical retreat, the bulls launch another attack. The recent trend resembles a state of 'seeing through the bears' strengths and weaknesses, and preparing to launch'. Yesterday's hammer line was even more of a signal: the bears' selling failed, and the bulls reclaimed it at the end, a typical sign of reversal.
Ethereum is similar: three pullbacks, each low is higher than the last, and every round of attacks from the bears is weaker than the previous one; conversely, the bulls can break through previous highs each time, with momentum continuously increasing.
Many people panic just by staring at the K-line 'drop'; in fact, they are only seeing the surface. If you can identify the underlying game between bulls and bears, you'll find that it's more like a stage of consolidating strength rather than the eve of a crash.
The conclusion is simple: in the current trend, the bulls hold the initiative. The real key is not to panic and follow the crowd, but to see through the essence and grasp the trend.
After reviewing the overall market, let's take a look at how the current altcoins are performing:
XRP
$XRP The current price has fallen back to the critical 200-day moving average (about $2.14), which is the key support determining whether it will rebound or decline. Although it has been repeatedly blocked in the $2.40-$2.50 range, there has not yet been a structural breakdown.
Currently, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are gradually converging, with prices compressed into a tight structure, indicating that significant volatility may be on the horizon. Although recent trends have been primarily bullish, this consolidation pattern could be a buildup before a reversal. The RSI is around 45, still neutral, indicating that both bulls and bears have not completely exhausted their strength. As long as it can hold the line at $2.09 and stabilize the 200-day moving average, XRP still has the potential to bounce back to $2.60, or even retest $3.
But risks also exist: recent trading volume has been continuously declining, and market confidence is insufficient. If a large volume drop occurs and breaks below the 200-day moving average, XRP may drop straight down to $1.85 or lower.
The current trend is very similar to the technical patterns before past major reversals.
SHIB
$SHIB The current price is about $0.00001187, having lost the previous support at $0.00001231, which was the starting point for rebounds in April and May. After multiple failures to stay above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages ($0.0000138-$0.0000140), the market has completely fallen into a weak zone.
More critically: the 200-day moving average ($0.00001546) has been pressing down for several weeks, with low trading volume and no significant buying interest. Currently, the RSI is only 32.79, close to oversold, but there are no reversal signals.
If it cannot quickly rise above $0.0000123 in the short term, SHIB is likely to further test lower levels, with $0.00001000 becoming the last line of support.
Additionally, with market sentiment being cold and risk appetite declining, meme coins like SHIB are often the first to be sold off. Unless there are significant positive factors (such as large whale purchases, burning mechanisms, major collaborations, etc.), it is likely to continue to fluctuate downward, or even experience panic selling.
Trump
$TRUMP The tokens will unlock over $500 million in chips in mid-July. We had already laid our plans on the day of the banquet, when the price was around 16. I predicted it would drop to 10, but it ultimately fell to 9, directly halving, a typical 'good news turns bad' trend, perfectly suited for a quick exit.
With the unlocking period approaching from late June to early July, a new round of gaming opportunities may arise. Currently, TRUMP shows signs of an oversold rebound in the short term, with the 10.10-10.11 area being a relatively cost-effective buying window, targeting 10.50 (about +4%), with a stop loss set at 9.90. Operational suggestion: light positions, quick in and out, beware of political news disturbances.
Looking at the level #GASS cat coin, it's really not something that can be held onto just by talking; without a bit of faith in holding, many would have been shaken out long ago.
From the market view, I believe many people have already been shaken out due to the back-and-forth volatility, and I am one of them. After experiencing two rounds of big rises and falls, coupled with the recent quiet on the ETH chain, I almost sold last night, my mouse was hovering over the sell button, luckily I held back.
Now I recommend everyone to take a longer view and look at the daily line. If this wave can stabilize at a market value of 10 million, we can patiently wait for the next breakout; if it truly breaks above 100 million, then we can directly look at the weekly level.
For those holding on, let's look forward to that day: charging up together, and making money!
That's all for the article! If you're confused in the crypto world, consider strategizing and harvesting profits with me!
