Expectations for an increase in Bitcoin and the crypto market are strengthening in the second half of 2025
Expectations for a significant rise in the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, in the second half of 2025 are increasing. According to the analysis of David Duong, Head of Global Research at Coinbase, the positive developments observed in the US's economic indicators and the decrease in recession risk are boosting optimism about the crypto market.
Recently, it has been emphasized that concerns about recession in the markets have receded, and new data indicates that this risk has diminished. The increased growth potential of the US economy, new financial regulations, and upcoming budget packages positively affect market expectations. Additionally, crypto-friendly and market-supportive steps in the political arena are strengthening investors' risk appetite.
David Duong states, "A few months ago, we noted that the crypto market would see bottom levels in the first half of 2025, while record rises could be possible in the second half. Despite the increase in Bitcoin prices, we maintain this forecast. The most intense period of macroeconomic challenges is behind us."
Pressures in the Bond Market and Their Economic Effects
Duong notes that the US's high spending could lead to sudden and significant increases in government bond yields. Especially, increases in interest rates on treasury bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years pose a risk of slowing economic growth by raising borrowing costs for companies and consumers.
David Duong states, "A rapid increase in long-term interest rates can trigger volatility in equity and credit markets. This situation may undermine investors' confidence in the US's sustainable budget deficit."
Increasing Demand for Value Storage Instruments
With the increase in fluctuations in financial markets, it is expected that investors will turn to safer havens. Especially assets like gold and Bitcoin that offer high liquidity and resilience are expected to be preferred more in this process.
David Duong states, "In such an environment, we think that value storage instruments like gold and Bitcoin will be in a more advantageous position compared to other cryptocurrencies."
Future Expectations and Investor Warnings
In the upcoming period, it is expected that price movements in the markets will be shaped by changes in investors' risk perceptions. With the implementation of the US's new budget policies, a revival in the markets is anticipated. Analysts advise investors to maintain a balanced portfolio and act cautiously against possible fluctuations.
The second half of 2025 will be a critical period that crypto investors will closely monitor. Factors such as the growth trend in the US economy, political developments, and liquidity needs will determine the price performance of safe assets like Bitcoin.
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