Coinbase: Three Main Trends That Will Shape the Crypto Markets in the Second Half of 2025
According to Coinbase Institutional, three key dynamics are emerging to support growth and transformation in the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2025: improving macroeconomic conditions, increasing institutional demand, and clarifying regulatory frameworks.
It is expected that these factors will create a new momentum in the adoption of digital assets and lead to a structural expansion in the market.
1. Improving Macroeconomic Outlook
According to Coinbase's analysis, the reduction of recession risks and signals of economic recovery are supporting investor confidence in the crypto market. The report states that it may be possible to avoid either a mild downturn or a full recession within 2025. Particularly towards the end of the year, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates create a more optimistic economic outlook.
Additionally, the increase in the US M2 money supply and the expansion of global central bank balance sheets are creating a surplus of liquidity in the markets. Coinbase emphasizes that this environment creates a supportive ground for Bitcoin and other digital assets, and that a return to 2024 price levels is unlikely.
In this context, keeping inflation under control and supportive fiscal policies from governments may allow the market value of crypto assets to continue to grow.
2. Rapid Increase in Institutional Demand
The second important trend is the permanent inclusion of digital assets in institutional portfolios. According to Coinbase data, it is observed that 228 publicly traded companies worldwide hold a total of approximately 820,000 BTC. Additionally, interest in altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP is also increasing.
Especially leveraged financing strategies adopted by companies like MicroStrategy are drawing attention as pioneers of this movement. With the acceptance of new accounting standards (FASB), companies can now reflect digital assets on their balance sheets at market value — which is a more transparent and incentivizing system compared to the old model limited to recognizing losses.
Additionally, the rise of publicly traded investment vehicles (PTCVs) aimed solely at crypto accumulation is also noteworthy. While these vehicles offer liquidity and visibility, some carry the risk of forced selling pressure due to bond debts. Nevertheless, the fact that most debts will mature in the 2029–2030 period and the low loan-collateral ratios may allow firms to refinance without selling assets, potentially providing stability in this segment.
3. Regulatory Clarity is Gaining Ground
Finally, according to Coinbase, the regulatory framework for the crypto ecosystem is becoming increasingly clear. In the past, regulation was preferred through enforcement, but now Congress and the White House are working on a more comprehensive legal framework.
Especially for stablecoins, proposals such as the STABLE Act and GENIUS Act define reserve requirements, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and user protection measures. It seems possible to consolidate these regulations by August 2025.
Additionally, initiatives like the CLARITY Act are being built on the FIT21 law by clarifying the jurisdictional sharing between CFTC and SEC. These developments are critical for the long-term stability of the structure of the crypto market.
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