Bitcoin Summit: New Scenarios Based on On-Chain Models and Price Predictions

While Bitcoin prices are trading above $100,000, analysts are evaluating various on-chain models for where the potential peak might be in this cycle. Price predictions are compared with data obtained from previous cycles. However, experts emphasize that these predictions do not carry certainty and that investors should adopt data-driven, flexible approaches.

Models Used in Peak Prediction

Models that have been previously tried and shown certain successes are used to predict Bitcoin's potential peak. Tools such as 'Top Cap', 'Delta Top', and 'Terminal Price', developed especially by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, are noteworthy:

The Top Cap model is calculated by taking 35 times the historical average of the market value. However, this model can sometimes make overly optimistic predictions.

Terminal Price makes more reasonable predictions based on on-chain movements and forecasts a potential peak of approximately $221,000 in this cycle.

Delta Top offers a more cautious approach; it had predicted a peak in the $80,000 – $100,000 range in the previous cycle.

Although these models can be useful for understanding general trends, it should be noted that the data is constantly changing. Therefore, predictions also need to be updated over time.

MVRV Ratio and Cycle Timing

In peak predictions, not only price but also timing is important. One of the key indicators analyzed by analysts is the MVRV ratio. This ratio provides clues about investor behaviors by comparing Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value.

In previous cycles, the MVRV ratio generally approached the 4 level at peaks.

Currently, this ratio is at the level of 2.34, which indicates that the upward potential is still present.

However, due to declining return rates in this cycle, it is thought that the peak level may form around 3.5.

From a timing perspective, the average duration from bottom to peak in previous cycles was about 1,060 days. Since approximately 930 days have passed, there may be about 130 days left until the peak.

Target Price Ranges and Scenarios

Modeling indicates a few different price ranges for the peak:

Moderate scenario: The $150,000 – $200,000 range is seen as a strong possibility by many analysts.

High scenario: When Terminal Price and MVRV ratio combine, some calculations predict the potential peak at $273,000.

However, it should be noted that these estimates can be significantly affected by market psychology and supply-demand dynamics.

Strategic Approach for Investors

While it is not possible to predict the market peak with certainty, on-chain data and historical analyses provide investors with a solid framework. Experts advise investors in their decision-making:

It is suggested to refer to multiple analysis tools instead of a single model,

Be sensitive to real-time data,

It suggests being prepared for sudden price fluctuations.

In summary, tools like Terminal Price, Delta Top, and MVRV have accurately predicted cycle peaks in the past, but they do not provide certainty. Therefore, it is crucial for investors to closely monitor the market and make flexible and informed decisions.

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