Miners sell 12,000 BTC, a change in trend is imminent tonight
1. Key points on the market: BTC is stuck in a triangular area, pretending to sleep
1. Price is stagnant
After a spike to $105,374 yesterday, it plummeted and closed at $105,088 this afternoon, with only a 0.6% fluctuation. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands 106,881.1 acts as a hard ceiling, while the lower band 103,310.5 seems like a floor, with the price stuck at 105,088 in limbo — clear signs of manipulation by the whales, specifically targeting those eager to trade.
2. The opening of the Bollinger Bands hides clues
The expanding mouth signals a warning of a potential trend change. The current price is glued to the lower band but does not break it, which is indeed a trap for shorts:
Support at 103,310.5: rebounds 2% in seconds, triggering a short squeeze
If lost: triggers a long liquidation cascade
3. MACD leaks the main player’s position
DIF -651.7 deeply underwater, MACD bars -473.2 are turning a shocking green — this is not a downturn, but rather a pressure build-up for accumulation! It's similar to the night before the reversal on June 3rd, where one strong bullish candle could trigger a golden cross.
2. Three underlying currents catalyzing the trend change
Miners dumping: 12,000 BTC transferred out in 24 hours
Altcoins sucking liquidity: PEPE and other low-tier coins skyrocketing, ETH on-chain Gas fees soaring to 200 gwei diverting fundsMacro bomb: 20:30 tonight, the US PPI data release, exceeding expectations = interest rate hike panic
Old Li's viewpoint: The whales are using news to “kill with a borrowed knife,” if PPI is good, there will be a short squeeze, if bad, it will liquidate longs, the narrow fluctuations are just the stage for laying explosives!
3. Today's scenario: Focus on two critical thresholds
Long and short lifeline: 103,310.5 vs 106,881.1Assault signal: Trading volume surges to 2 billion/4 hours
Scenario probabilities:
A: Continue to crawl between 104,500-106,000 before PPI, holding steady at 103,310 will lead to a night assault at 107,000
B: A spike to 102,500 before the data leads to a long squeeze, then pull back by $1,500
C: Losing 101,000 triggers institutional liquidation
Stay safe. Stay smart. Stay focused. We are in this together.
