Bitcoin has been in a price predicament for more than two months now. Previously, this cryptocurrency asset fell below the $75,000 mark, mainly due to the global trade war initiated by then-US President Donald Trump entering a high-pressure stage, leading to extremely fragile investor sentiment.
Although the US subsequently reached de-escalation agreements with multiple countries, including China, and the global political situation stabilized, the recent tense atmosphere has escalated again, accompanied by substantial casualties, causing global markets to fall back into unease.
On June 13, the Israeli military launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, codenamed 'Rising Lion,' targeting over 100 military and nuclear facilities in Iran, including the Natanz and Fordow nuclear bases. According to the latest reports, this operation has resulted in nearly 100 deaths, including senior officers and nuclear scientists, with over 300 injured.
In response, Iran quickly retaliated by launching an operation named 'Truth Oath 3.' Last night, Iran fired a large number of missiles at central Israel, Tel Aviv, and northern regions, resulting in at least 3 deaths and dozens of injuries.
The Israeli side and the Trump administration have described this airstrike as a 'preemptive' defensive measure aimed at preventing Iran from continuing its nuclear program. Tehran views the counterattack as a 'legitimate act of defending national sovereignty.'
BTC is hurt in the short term, and future trends are still constrained by the development of the situation.
This sudden military conflict has produced an immediate reaction in Bitcoin prices. As seen during the trade war in 2018, severe geopolitical fluctuations always trigger a reallocation of risk-averse funds.
After the news of the airstrike in Israel broke, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell from a daily high of $108,500 to below $103,000 within hours. The price has slightly rebounded to around $105,000, seemingly showing little fluctuation in response to Iran's counterattack, but overall market sentiment remains extremely tense. If the situation escalates further, a sharp impact cannot be ruled out.
Famous crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin needs to maintain in the 'six-figure' range (above $100,000) in the short term to avoid a technical breakout. Once the price falls below this psychological barrier, it could quickly test $80,000 or even lower.
Signs of whale reduction are emerging, with large holders' sell-offs triggering a chain reaction risk.
The first wave of warning signals from the market had actually emerged before the conflict broke out. Ali Martinez cited on-chain data indicating that some 'whales' holding over 1,000 BTC had begun to reduce their positions before the event occurred. Although the scale is not significant, the change in attitude should not be ignored.
After Israel's strike on Iran, the trend of whale reduction intensified. If this capital continues to flow out, it will not only increase market selling pressure but may also lead to panic selling among retail investors, further amplifying the decline.
Martinez particularly emphasizes that the behavior of large holders often serves as a 'weather vane' in the market. The current shift from 'wait and see' to 'actual action' must alert investors.
